Research Archives - Page 8 of 13

W|EPC: Venture Global LNG – August 2020 Update

W|EPC: Venture Global & Calcasieu Pass LNG – Satellite Image Review (ICA & Fluor) & More Engineering Changes.

Key Points:

Calcasieu Pass Revises Key Engineering Documents (Again). Over the past two weeks Calcasieu Pass (CPLNG) submitted engineering updates to FERC, most of which are marked as confidential. While the substance of the updates and revisions are unknown, the types of documents that were filed indicate possible changes to structural steel design & calculations, equipment flow rates, and the project’s mechanical equipment list. (Page 4)
Q2 Progress: Pre-Treatment Unit Module Fabrication – ICA Fluor & the Tampico, Mexico fabrication yard. As previously noted, we believe ICA Fluor is fabricating the CPLNG Pre-Treatment Unit (PTU) Modules in their Tampico, Mexico fab yard. Satellite images show
Pre-FID Feedstock Specs Or Assumptions May Have Changed…

Calcasieu Pass LNG August Update – Key Takeaways.- Page 2
More Engineering Adjustments – Page 4
Changes To Feedstock Assumptions?- Page 4
Satellite Image Analysis – ICA Fluor (Tampico, Mexico) – Page 5
Pre-Treatment Unit Module Overview – Page 6
March vs. July 2020 – ICA Fluor Satellite Image Comparison – Page 7
Closer Look – March 2020 – Page 8
Closer Look – July 2020 – Page 9
Disclosures – Page 10

Previous ICA Fluor Satellite Image

W|EPC: Venture Global LNG: August 2020 Update

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W|EPC: LNG Canada Q320 Monitor – Labor Dynamics & Baseline Satellite Image Review

LNG Canada Q320 Monitor – Labor Dynamics & Baseline Satellite Image Review

Shell • Petrochina • Mitsubishi • Kogas • Petronas

1) Union Craft Avg. Wage Rate Escalators & Impact On JGC/Fluor, and broader project cost…

What’s Happened/Changed: Part of our current focus is on LNG Canada’s wage rate escalation and union labor agreements post-2023.
Why Does That Matter: EPC lump sum proposals generally include labor escalation between 1-3% per annum (rates vary based on geography/availability). Labor agreements supporting LNG Canada and other B.C. projects expire in 2023 and have a relatively advantageous average labor escalation rate of…..continued.
For context, union labor strikes, renegotiated agreements, and significant wage rate escalation supported Gorgon LNG coming in $20B+ over budget.
What’s The Impact:…..continued (Page 3)

2) Taking A Look At JFJV’s Longer-Term Labor Inflation Risk (Page 5)

3) JFJV’s Construction Activity – What does it tell us about the project timeline? (Page 8)

4) Satellite Image Analysis Baseline – Benchmarks for Remainder of the Project…. (Pages 9-17)

W|EPC: LNG Canada Q320 Monitor – Labor Dynamics & Baseline Satellite Image Review

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W|EPC: Gorgon LNG’s Propane Kettle Cracks – Early Read

Overview:
On July 23, 2020, Reuters reported Australia’s Department of Mines, Industry Regulation & Safety (DMIRS) said “it plans to inspect Chevron’s Gorgon LNG plant as soon as possible following calls by a trade union to shut the plant.”
1. During routine maintenance, Chevron Australia discovered issues with the propane kettles on Train #2.
2. “The Australian Manufacturing Workers’ Union (AMWU) has called for Chevron to shut down the Gorgon plant for immediate safety inspections by a gov. regulator and for a report to be made public.”
3. Specifically, cracks up to 1 meter long and 30 millimeters deep were discovered by the non-destructive testing team (per AMWU). On July 28, 2020, a Chevron company spokesman said, “Chevron expected to restart Train #2 of its Gorgon LNG plant in early September after completing repairs.” Chevron said during routine maintenance that began on May 23rd and was scheduled to be completed by July 11, 2020, weld quality issues were discovered on 8 propane heat exchangers. Gorgon LNG Trains 1 & 3 are producing. On 07/29/20, inspectors from DMIRS were due on site to inspect the cracks after AMWUraised issues about the conditions of the South Korean-made kettles.

Key Takeaways:
• Inspectors from Western Australia’s “safety watchdog” were scheduled to inspect propane kettle cracks on Chevron’s Gorgon LNG Train-2 on 7/29
• Labor unions continue pushing back, requesting a full shut down of all three LNG trains for inspection.
• Publicly available technical details are limited, even for the folks who built Gorgon LNG (who we spoke with); however, we believe the 3-month estimated down time for repairs is….continued
• Primary rationale for a Train-1 and Train-3 inspection shut down would be…continued

W|EPC Thoughts & Observations
The publicly available technical details are limited, even for our contacts involved in building Gorgon LNG. However, we are watching the following:…continued

Concluding Thoughts…

Key Questions…

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Webber Research: Hydrogen Tracker Highlights:

Recent Highlights (page 1)
LH2 Carrier Progress (page 3)
M&A Tracker (page 4)
Valuation Summaries (page 5)
Hydrogen Production Costs From Fossil Fuels (page 6)
Hydrogen Production Costs From Renewables (page 7)
Hydrogen Projects & Electrolyzer Tech (page 8)
Fuel Cell Technology Comparisons (page 9)

Recent Highlights
NKLA Breaks Ground On Coolidge Facility: On 7/23 NKLA announced it began construction on its 1MM sqft……
NEE Eases Into Hydrogen: On 7/24 NEE proposed a $65MM pilot green hydrogen plant with a 20MW electrolyzer in Florida….
MSFT To Replace Diesel Backup Power With Hydrogen: On 7/27 MSFT announced it successfully powered a row of data center servers for 48 consecutive hours with a 150kw hydrogen fuel cell system….
Linde To Build Refueling Station For World’s First Hydrogen Passenger Train: LIN will build and operate the station and is expected to begin construction in… BKR & Snam Complete Testing On Hybrid Hydrogen Turbine: On 7/20 BKR and Snam announced the successful testing of the hybrid hydrogen-powered NovaLT12 turbine

W|EPC: Venture Global & The Approach Nexus – Drone & Satellite Image Analysis, Engineering Changes Q320

W|EPC: Venture Global – Nexus Approaching Drone &Satellite Image Analysis, Engineering Changes Q320

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• Calcasieu Pass Update – Key Takeaways (slide 2)
• Calcasieu Pass LNG Module Overview (slide 3)
• Importance Of Notification Window (slide 4)
• Engineering Changes: Pre-Treatment Modules (slide 5)
• Engineering Changes: Liquefaction Modules (slide 7)
• Technical Analysis: Changes & Impact? (slide 9)
• Satellite Image Analysis – Baker Hughes Module Yard (slide 13)
• Drone Image Analysis – Site Prep Update (slide 18)
• Remaining Questions (slide 23)
• Scenario Analysis & Predictions – Rubber Starting To Meet The Road? (slide 25)
• Disclosures (slide 27)

Key Highlights:
• Venture Global: The Looming EPC Nexus…
• Drone Image Analysis:
• Calcasieu Pass Outlook
• Consequential Damages, Predictions & Conclusions

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Webber Research: Hydrogen Tracker

For access information, email us at [email protected]

Highlights:
• Recent News (page 1)
• LH2 Carrier Progress (page 3)
• M&A Tracker (page 4)
• Valuation Summaries (page 5)
• Hydrogen Production Costs (page 7)
• Industry Dynamics (page 9)

PLUG Launches GenSure HP Platform
Linde Signs MOU For Hydrogen Mobility At 2022 Winter Olympics
Hyperion Set To Unveil XP-1 In August
US DOE Announces $11.5MM In Funding For CCS
Air Liquide Opens Hydrogen Fueling Station In Japan
McPhy Selected For Unnamed Fueling Station Project
Keeping Tabs On The World’s First Liquefied Hydrogen (LH2) Carrier:
- Future Supply Chain Dynamics