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W|EPC: Venture Global LNG – August 2020 Update
W|EPC: Venture Global & Calcasieu Pass LNG – Satellite Image Review (ICA & Fluor) & More Engineering Changes.
Key Points:
- Calcasieu Pass Revises Key Engineering Documents (Again). Over the past two weeks Calcasieu Pass (CPLNG) submitted engineering updates to FERC, most of which are marked as confidential. While the substance of the updates and revisions are unknown, the types of documents that were filed indicate possible changes to structural steel design & calculations, equipment flow rates, and the project’s mechanical equipment list. (Page 4)
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Q2 Progress: Pre-Treatment Unit Module Fabrication – ICA Fluor & the Tampico, Mexico fabrication yard. As previously noted, we believe ICA Fluor is fabricating the CPLNG Pre-Treatment Unit (PTU) Modules in their Tampico, Mexico fab yard. Satellite images show
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Pre-FID Feedstock Specs Or Assumptions May Have Changed…
Calcasieu Pass LNG August Update – Key Takeaways.- Page 2
More Engineering Adjustments – Page 4
Changes To Feedstock Assumptions?- Page 4
Satellite Image Analysis – ICA Fluor (Tampico, Mexico) – Page 5
Pre-Treatment Unit Module Overview – Page 6
March vs. July 2020 – ICA Fluor Satellite Image Comparison – Page 7
Closer Look – March 2020 – Page 8
Closer Look – July 2020 – Page 9
Disclosures – Page 10
Previous ICA Fluor Satellite Image
W|EPC: Venture Global LNG: August 2020 Update
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W|EPC: Venture Global & The Approach Nexus – Drone & Satellite Image Analysis, Engineering Changes Q320
W|EPC: Venture Global – Nexus Approaching Drone &Satellite Image Analysis, Engineering Changes Q320
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• Calcasieu Pass Update – Key Takeaways (slide 2)
• Calcasieu Pass LNG Module Overview (slide 3)
• Importance Of Notification Window (slide 4)
• Engineering Changes: Pre-Treatment Modules (slide 5)
• Engineering Changes: Liquefaction Modules (slide 7)
• Technical Analysis: Changes & Impact? (slide 9)
• Satellite Image Analysis – Baker Hughes Module Yard (slide 13)
• Drone Image Analysis – Site Prep Update (slide 18)
• Remaining Questions (slide 23)
• Scenario Analysis & Predictions – Rubber Starting To Meet The Road? (slide 25)
• Disclosures (slide 27)
Key Highlights:
• Venture Global: The Looming EPC Nexus…
• Drone Image Analysis:
• Calcasieu Pass Outlook
• Consequential Damages, Predictions & Conclusions
Copyright: PLEIADES © CNES (2020), Distribution Airbus DS & W|EPC Analysis
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W|EPC Risks: Venture Global – Keeping An Eye On Pile Design Changes
W|EPC Risks: Venture Global – Calcasieu Pass LNG – Keeping An Eye On Pile Design Changes
Key Takeaways:
• An engineering design change at Calcasieu Pass (CPLNG) required additional piling and out of sequence construction activities.
• Meaningful engineering changes during construction & fabrication can undermine the benefits of modularization, by creating cost overruns and delays.
• No Related Delays Are Visible Yet. However, we should get a better view of the actual impact as Calcasieu enters the mechanical phases of fabrication and construction – where the ramification of errors or changes becomes more evident.
Keeping An Eye Out For Material Quantity Growth. On May 22nd, 2020, CPLNG requested FERC approve eight (8) additional piles in the Pre-Treatment Common Pipe Rack 27X (PTC27X) area due to changes in the pipe stress data. Pipe stress calculations are developed to ensure the piping design and layout can support the expansions and contractions caused by processing hydrocarbons. Pipe stress data is one of the most important elementsin determining the piping layout, structural steel design, material quantities needed for the CPLNG modules, and pile layout.
The PTC27X pile construction design was previously submitted to FERC on December 30, 2019 and approved for construction on January 31, 2020. PTC27X piling submittal timeline:
• Original Submittal to FERC: 12/30/19
• FERC Approved: 1/31/20
• Revised Submittal to FERC: 5/22/20
• FERC Approved: 6/4/20
Was Module Engineering For PTC27X Finally Completed Last Month? On May 22, 2020 CPLNG requested FERC approve the PTC27X pipe rack foundations and steel construction. We believe the final PTC27X pipe rack module engineering is now complete, subject to FERC Approval. The PTC27X modules were designed per….continued
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W|EPC: Objections To Venture Global’s Storage Tank Design
Venture Global – PHMSA Objects to Calcasieu Pass LNG’s Storage Tank Design
- A day after Venture Global successfully raised the first LNG storage tank roof
(4/27/20) at its Calcasieu Pass LNG facility, PHMSA issued a memo (4/25/20) to
FERC objecting to the LNG storage tank design, citing non-compliance with the
National Fire Protection Association (NFPA 59A). - LNG storage tanks must be designed and constructed to meet several regulations
and codes, including NFPA 59A. - The timing of PHMSA’s objection is notable since the tank design should
have been approved by PHMSA & FERC prior to the start of construction.
Continued….
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W|EPC: Force Majeure & The LNG Supply Chain: Scenarios For BH, Kiewit, & Venture Global
Reviewing Satellite Images Of Italian Fabrication Yards & Force Majeure Flow Charts
• Supply Chain Overview Pages 1-2
• Satellite Images: BH’s Fabrication Yard In Avenza, Italy Pages 2-4
• Implications Of Calcasieu’s Unique Contractual/Structural Dynamics Pages 3-5
• Force Majeure Flow Charts: Wrapped vs Unwrapped Pages 4-5
• Pertinent Questions From Here Pages 5-6
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The LNG Supply Chain & Force Majeure Dominoes. Given the continued, rolling implications of the global response to COVID-19, we thought it was worthwhile to examine potential points of friction as it pertains to the implications of Force Majeure (FM) declarations on large-scale, multi-faceted LNG export projects. We believe such a scenario is relevant for Venture Global’s Calcasieu Pass (CPLNG) project given its globally linked supply chain – including its liquefaction modules which are being fabricated at a Baker Hughes (BH) fabrication facility in Avenza, Italy. (Satellite images on Pages 2-4)
Venture Global’s Potential FM Predicament Is Unique. A typical, fully wrapped, EPC contract would typically just keep an owner on the hook for extensions to a contractor’s guaranteed completion date. However, the less expensive, decentralized contracting structure that Venture Global has assembled for CPLNG could potentially expose the project to contractors looking to recover mitigation and prolongation costs. (Pages 2-4)
Implications Of FM Claim For BH, Kiewit, & VG. We believe work on CPLNG’s modules was still progressing last week (with non-essential personnel working from home), given the escalation in restrictions we believe those productivity dynamics are (justifiably) fluid. Should BH file a successful FM claim, it would most likely be granted… (Pages 3-6)
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