Russia Archives - Webber Research

OPEC+ Fallout: Contagion Everywhere From Looming Price War…

***From Sunday 3/8***

For access information please email us at [email protected]

Tankers Among Few Eventual Beneficiaries

  • Impact On Tankers:                                                                                     Page 1, 3-5
  • The 2015 Tanker Comp, Similarities, Implied Upside                         Pages 3-4
  • Impact On LNG Developers (LNG, TELL, NEXT, GLNG, NFE)            Pages 2-3
  • Historical & Implied Equity Correlations To Crude Vol                       Page 3
  • NAVs: Current, Mid-Cycle to Trough Range                                          Page 3
  • OPEC+ Background                                                                                   Page 3, 6

This Is Going To Hurt: On Friday (3/6) talks between OPEC and its OPEC+ allies (Russia) over a corona-related production cut collapsed, sending oil prices down with it (Brent and WTI down 9% and 10%, respectively on Friday). While the lack of OPEC+ support for crude prices was enough to rattle markets, what’s transpired since – the relationship between the Saudis and the Russians rapidly devolving into what looks like an all-out pricing war – has the potential to reshape energy markets for years to come, and will likely take the mantle as the most value-destructive policy shift in decades.

Exogenous Demand Shock, Meet Exogenous Supply Shock. As noted below, Aramco has already come out with discounted crude prices (OSPs) on the back of the meeting, and is reportedly speaking to a potential production ramp from its current 9.7mbd, to well above 10mbd, and could even reach a record of 12mbd. Again – that would be additional supply into a market that’s already oversupplied amid global efforts to contain the Coronavirus (nCoV) weighing on demand. While the Russians have less available swing production, what they do have will be moving in the wrong direction as well, as they look to grab share from U.S. Shale producers.

How Does This Impact Our Universe:
Tankers: We’ll Call It Mixed… (And That’s One Of The Few Bright Spots). Once the dust settles the tanker group, including FRO, DHT, EURN, ASC, etc, should be one of the few actual overproduction beneficiaries as: 1) tanker activity and rates are generally positively levered to production volumes (including overproduction), and 2) we expect to see floating storage, both economic (as the front end of the crude forward curve collapses (already in progress) and…….continued on Pages 3-5

Most Relevant Tanker Comp: 2015, after OPEC failed to respond to falling crude prices. While overcapacity and falling crude prices ravaged the rest of the energy markets, Crude Tanker rates (VLCCs) averaged $65K/day (Figure 4) – a level not reached since 2008, up 116% y/y and the firmest level in nearly a decade. What would 2015 day rates mean for current tanker stocks? If we replaced our current 2020 rate decks with the 2015 average rates….continued on page Pages 2-3

Everything Stops. If nCoV brought the near-term prospects of new LNG business to a particularly slow crawl, we believe the OPEC+ blow up will bring it to a full stop, at least until the dust settles. For companies in the process of restructuring (like TELL).….continued on Pages 2-3

For access please email us at [email protected]


Read More

LNG Update: Frozen 3? Funding Hot Potato For Novatek’s Arctic 2

Keeping An Eye On Budgeting Process For Arctic 2

Who Picks Up The Check For Arctic 2? The timeline for Novatek’s high-profile Arctic LNG 2 (19.8mpta) may have hit a modest speedbump, as the ~$1.9BN request to help finance critical aspects of Arctic 2 [the Utrenneye LNG terminal on Gydan peninsula (page 4), and reloading terminals in Murmansk (for European cargoes) and Kamchatka (for Asia cargoes)] are absent from Russia’s 2020 draft budget. While the project has already reached a positive FID, and is clearly a national priority – we think it’s worth watching whether any squabble over the ultimate funding source ends up delaying its operational timeline (which is already ambitious). The primary options appeared to be (1) the state budget (now absent), or (2) funding from the ~$124B National Wealth Fund, which appears to be a more complicated….

For access information please email us at [email protected] 


Read More

Webber Research: Global Shipping Weekly

Russia May Delay IMO 2020 Compliance:

Russia, a large producer and exporter of high sulfur fuel oil, intends to delay full implementation of IMO 2020 regulations until 2024. This will only be in effect within local waters (including Belarus, Kazakhstan, Armenia and Kyrgyzstan). Despite investments in Russian refineries, only one Russian oil producer (Lukoil), has the ability to produce fuel that complies with IMO 2020 standards. It’s worth noting that, IMO regulation enforcement falls on Russia, not the IMO itself. While there are audit mechanisms for corrective action plans, there are no punitive measures for violations. Earlier this year, Indonesia also flirted with the idea of not enforcing IMO requirements, but later backtracked and pledged commitment to the IMO 2020 standards.

Tanker Spot Rates Continue To Slide:

VLCC spot rates (TCEs) down last week with rates ending at $54.8k/day (-23% w/w and -81% m/m). Suezmax TCEs ended the week at $39.0k/day (-28% w/w and -76% m/m) while Aframax rates ended the week at $21.5k/day (-23% w/w and -63% m/m). As the market digested the chaotic past few weeks, owners are starting to temper expectations with freight rates and have been giving up gains. We note rates remain well-above mid-cycle levels.

IMO 2020 Update:

Earlier this week EURN signed a partnership with T.A.G. Marine, operator of Kuala Linggi International Port (KLIP), that will allow EURN’s ULCC Oceania to float and

Contact us at [email protected] for access details

Read More