TPIC: Shuts Iowa/Juarez Facilities – Withdraws 2020 Guidance

We thought we’d pass along a snippet from our recent note on TPIC (4/23) – highlighting both its 2020 guidance withdraw, as well as the shutdown of its Iowa & Juarez facilities – which, while disclosed in subsequent filings, were not highlighted in the guidance suspension press release. For access information email us at [email protected]

TPIC: Newton Iowa Facility Latest To Be Affected By COVID-19. Earlier today TPIC announced it would pause production at its manufacturing facility in Newton, Iowa after 28 associates tested positive for COVID-19 last week. The Newton facility is set to be shut for roughly 1 week for deep cleaning and development of more advanced testing procedures for associates. Additional Updates: Not included in the press release was a series of updates to its other manufacturing facilities:

• Juarez, Mexico: 1 facility (of 3) temporarily closed due to an order from a division of the Mexico Secretary of Labor. TPIC said it plans to administratively challenge the order but that if it’s not reversed, the facility would be closed through 5/31.
• Matamoros, Mexico: Reduced capacity timeline extended from 4/30 to 5/31 due to the extension of Mexico’s sanitary emergency order and demands from its labor union.
• Chennai, India: Resumed limited production with additional personnel on 4/21 (previously targeted 4/15). Other facilities operating at normal capacity, including its 2 facilities in Izmir, Turkey which had been operating at 50% capacity for the first half of April.
• Guidance Suspension Not Surprising: As a result of the additional facility closures and the general unpredictability of the magnitude and duration of the pandemic, TPIC also announced it was withdrawing its 2020 guidance (Figure 1). The majority of TPIC’s Wind OEM peers and customers have already suspended guidance – making TPIC’s announcement seem largely inevitable – particularly after it had already tempered EBITDA expectations earlier this month (below). TPIC said it would provide an update on its Q120 earnings call (5/7) but we don’t expect a confident reset 2 weeks from now.
• That said, we do expect the revised guidance to be substantially lower – as we’ve already been modeling 2020 EBITDA 21% lower than the mid-point of….continued

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Renewable Energy: The Next Generation

Initiating Coverage Of ENPH, TPIC, REGI, & ENS

Executive Summary ……………………………………………….Page  5
Industry Overviews………………………………………………..Page 9
Near-Term Drivers.…………………………………………………Page 11
Solar …………………………………………………………………Page 14
Wind …………………………………………………………………Page 20
Biofuels ……………………………………………………………..Page 25
Energy Storage …………………………………………………….Page 30
Enphase Energy, Inc. (ENPH) …………………………………….Page 33
TPI Composites, Inc. (TPIC) ………………………………………Page 47
Renewable Energy Group, Inc. (REGI) ………………………….Page 59
Enersys (ENS) ………………………………………………………Page 70
Disclosures ………………………………………………………….Page 81

Rolling Out Our First Wave Of Renewable Energy Coverage: We are initiating coverage of REGI (Outperform, PT: $36), ENPH (Market Perform, PT: $33), TPIC (Market Perform, PT: $17), and ENS (Market Perform, PT: $55). As our historical energy infrastructure coverage has evolved, we’ve watched renewables consistently gain market share and play an increasingly competitive role in energy trade dynamics – particularly in the emerging markets, where we’ve seen prices come down, viability rise, and competitive flash points between traditional fuels, LNG, and renewables. Rather than focus solely on incumbent fuels and infrastructure, or solely on a potential bridge like LNG, we think it’s more prudent to cover energy transitions from every angle – hence our expansion into renewables.

Why These Names? We’re establishing a footprint in several renewable verticals: solar, wind, biofuels, and energy storage, creating a well-rounded platform that we can continue to expand. Within those verticals, ENPH, TPIC, REGI, and ENS were among the stocks most commonly highlighted by our clients as either underfollowed, misunderstood, or both. Although oil and gas (which remains the focal point of our legacy
coverage) still dominate global energy markets, it’s increasingly clear the future of energy is here – and it’s decarbonizing, innovating, and quickly becoming price competitive. We also think the group dovetails nicely with our skill-sets: analyzing SMID energy and infrastructure names with asymmetric risk/return profiles.

How Are We Tackling Renewables? There’s a reason why we were both drawn to and pushed toward this space – each company has a strong core business, at least one (or several) growth drivers, and the kind of significant shifting dynamics that can create particularly compelling risk/reward profiles.

COVID-19 Disclaimer: We continue to highlight our gratitude for health care providers and first responders during this time, and while our primary focus continues to be with the safety and well-being of our families, associates, and employees, the pandemic has certainly complicated our plans for initiation, however we think it’s important to have coverage through this period of uncertainty – rather than simply waiting for smoother seas. Each of our names have been and will continue to be greatly affected by the outbreak and associated economic downturn. Countries around the world have delayed energy auctions while agencies and data service providers have all begun to cut global supply and demand forecasts across all energy verticals. That said, it’s still too early to fully assess the potential impact on our industry- and company-level coverage. As a result, we are generally exercising caution with our ratings, price targets, and estimates until we get a broader view of the long-term disruption.

Investment Theses (Abridged)
Enphase Energy (ENPH) – Market Perform, PT: $33….continued (more…)

W|EPC: AEP Capital Project Analysis – Q220

Digging Into AEP’s Capital Project Backlog

• AEP Company Overview                                                       Page 2
• Key Takeaways                                                                         Page 3
• ERCOT Overview                                                                     Page 4
• AEP’s Activity Level vs Guided Capex                                 Pages 5-8
• Cost Overrun Analysis: Who Stays On Budget?
  • AEPT                                                                                    Page 9
  • SWEPCO                                                                            Page 10
  • ETT                                                                                       Page 11
• Ongoing Capital Projects – Current Status                          Pages 12 -15
• ETT’s CREZ Project Problem – Warranty Status?                Pages 16-17
• Project Profile: Solstice To Bakersfield, 345-kV T-Line      Pages 18-20
• Additional Management Questions                                     Page 21

American Electric Power (AEP, Market Cap ~$42B) has been in business for 114 years, with 5.5 MM customers across 11 states, including Texas. General Project EPC Background (AEP Subsidiaries):
American Electric Power Texas (AEPT) is a subsidiary of AEP, and provides transmission and distribution of electric power to ~1MM customers through Retail Electric Provider’s (REPs) in west, central, and south Texas, with an ROE sitting at at ~9.4%.

Southwestern Electric Power Company’s (SWEPCO), also an AEP sub, has 4K miles of transmission lines and 5K MW’s of generation capacity, supporting 536K customers primarily in Western Louisiana, North East Texas, the Panhandle of Texas, and Western Arkansas. SWEPCO’s ROE sit at ~9.6%.

Electric Transmission Texas, LLC, (ETT) is 50/50 JV between AEP and Berkshire Hathaway Energy Company, and owns/operates transmission facilities within Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), primarily around the AEPT service territory.  ETT’s ROE sits at ~9.6%, and it’s capital budget is not broken out within AEP’s forecasted numbers. AEPT and SEPC 2020-2024 capital forecast (~$8.4B) comprises ~25% of AEP’s total expected spend (~$33B) over that period.

Key Takeaways:
• Why Utility Project Tracking Is Increasingly Important In This Environment…
• Estimated vs. Actual Project Costs – Who comes in well under budget…and who doesn’t? (Pages 9-11)
• AEPT & SWEPCO Capex Trending Materially Below Forecast (Pages 5-8)
• The Jury Is Still Out On $1.6B Of Project Costs (Pages 12-15)
• ETT – Ongoing Problems With CREZ Projects, But No Warranty Cost Recovery Claims? (Pages 16-17)
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Tankers: Floating Storage Scenario Analysis & Utilization Impact

Our 3-Stage Approach To Tankers For the Remainder Of 2020

• Our 3-Stage Approach To The Remainder Of 2020                            Pages 1-2
• Floating Storage Scenario Analysis – Impact On Utilization             Pages 2-3
• Storage Arbitrage, Inventories, & Rate Reactions                               Pages 4-7
• Multi-Factor Crude Tanker Utilization Model                                       Pages 8-9
• Updated Tanker NAVs, Valuation Metrics, & Estimates                     Pages 9-10

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Depth Of Floating Storage Build Key For Tanker Equities In Q220. Amid the double black swan start to the year (OPEC supply shock/pricing war coupled with demand destruction from the COVID-19 response), tanker equities have (generally) acted as a hedge against the rest of the energy tape, as the prospect of significant structural and arb-driven floating storage has supported tanker earnings well above seasonal trends (page 4). While increasing OPEC & Russian crude production battle to replace US exports (the degree to which remains in question) – the market mechanism for finding that new global production balance should ultimately result in saturated land based storage and a ramp in floating storage (already ~100mb), and narrower tanker capacity, providing a significant tailwind for tanker cash flows. From an equity perspective, we think about Tanker stocks (FRO, EURN, DHT, ASC, etc.) in 3 stages….(Pages 1-2)

What Would Robust Floating Storage Mean For Tanker Rates & Utilization In Q2/Q3? We ran a multi-factor scenario analysis based on our updated crude tanker utilization model, flexed for different levels of incremental daily crude production moving into floating storage over the next 2-3 quarters. At the low end of the range…(Pages 2-8)

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W|EPC: Force Majeure & The LNG Supply Chain: Scenarios For BH, Kiewit, & Venture Global

Reviewing Satellite Images Of Italian Fabrication Yards & Force Majeure Flow Charts

• Supply Chain Overview                                                                                    Pages 1-2
• Satellite Images: BH’s Fabrication Yard In Avenza, Italy                              Pages 2-4
• Implications Of Calcasieu’s Unique Contractual/Structural Dynamics     Pages 3-5
• Force Majeure Flow Charts: Wrapped vs Unwrapped                                Pages 4-5
• Pertinent Questions From Here                                                                       Pages 5-6

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The LNG Supply Chain & Force Majeure Dominoes. Given the continued, rolling implications of the global response to COVID-19, we thought it was worthwhile to examine potential points of friction as it pertains to the implications of Force Majeure (FM) declarations on large-scale, multi-faceted LNG export projects. We believe such a scenario is relevant for Venture Global’s Calcasieu Pass (CPLNG) project given its globally linked supply chain – including its liquefaction modules which are being fabricated at a Baker Hughes (BH) fabrication facility in Avenza, Italy. (Satellite images on Pages 2-4)

Venture Global’s Potential FM Predicament Is Unique. A typical, fully wrapped, EPC contract would typically just keep an owner on the hook for extensions to a contractor’s guaranteed completion date. However, the less expensive, decentralized contracting structure that Venture Global has assembled for CPLNG could potentially expose the project to contractors looking to recover mitigation and prolongation costs. (Pages 2-4)

Implications Of FM Claim For BH, Kiewit, & VG. We believe work on CPLNG’s modules was still progressing last week (with non-essential personnel working from home), given the escalation in restrictions we believe those productivity dynamics are (justifiably) fluid. Should BH file a successful FM claim, it would most likely be granted… (Pages 3-6)

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W|EPC Utilities & Energy – Sempra Deep Dive – Oncor, March 2020

 Sempra (SRE) Capital Project Analysis – Oncor March 2020.

As part of our W|EPC Utility & Energy Project coverage, we’ve put together a deep dive into a number of large public utilities, including SRE, SO, D, AEP, CNP, ENB, EPD, ET, KMI, XOM, TOT, RDS:A, and others. We’ve included more information about our W|EPC Utility & Energy project coverage in the back of this presentation.

Given its size, and the sheer volume of projects and jurisdictions, we’re breaking our Sempra (SRE) coverage down into underlying components, with our Oncor deep dive below. Oncor Electric Delivery Company, LLC, is headquartered in Dallas, TX and is a regulated electrical distribution and transmission business. It is owned by two investors, SRE (80.25%) and Texas Transmission Investment LLC (19.75%).

Our Key Takeaways On Oncor:

• Out-sized Role In Critical TX Projects
  • Oncor is involved with 5 out of the 10 most important projects to provide more efficient electricity dispatch, while supporting the increasing electrical demand in Texas. (Page 5)
• Oncor vs. Other Investor Owned Utilities
  • Oncor has 156 more projects scheduled to be completed in 2020 than AEP, ET (50% AEP/50% Berkshire Hathaway) and CNP combined. (Page 8)
• Final Estimates vs. Final Actual Costs
  • Over the last 15 months, Oncor’s reported final construction costs for 190 projects were 12% higher than their final estimated costs. (Pages 9-10)
• Lubbock Power and Light
  • Oncor’s May 2019 acquisition of InfraREIT included a variety of electricity transmission and distribution projects & assets, which included ~$3600MM joint project with Lubbock Power and Light (LP&L). (Pages 13, 17-20)
• Future Project Opportunities
  • The integration of LP&L to ERCOT should reduce congestion costs in the Panhandle of Texas and increase demand for new transmission projects in/and around Oncor’s coverage area. (Page 4)

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