Consulting Archives - Webber Research

Webber Research: Hydrogen Tracker

For access information, email us at [email protected]

Highlights:
• Recent News (page 1)
• LH2 Carrier Progress (page 3)
• M&A Tracker (page 4)
• Valuation Summaries (page 5)
• Hydrogen Production Costs (page 7)
• Industry Dynamics (page 9)

PLUG Launches GenSure HP Platform
Linde Signs MOU For Hydrogen Mobility At 2022 Winter Olympics
Hyperion Set To Unveil XP-1 In August
US DOE Announces $11.5MM In Funding For CCS
Air Liquide Opens Hydrogen Fueling Station In Japan
McPhy Selected For Unnamed Fueling Station Project
Keeping Tabs On The World’s First Liquefied Hydrogen (LH2) Carrier:
- Future Supply Chain Dynamics

Webber Research Hydrogen Tracker

Introducing the Webber Research Hydrogen Tracker

Yesterday we launched our Hydrogen Tracker – a weekly research product dedicated to the build out of Hydrogen production, technologies, and associated markets. For information about access to our Hydrogen Research, Renewables, or our Utility, Energy, & LNG Infrastructure Project coverage, please email us at [email protected]

Highlights:
• Recent News (page 1)
• LH2 Carrier Progress (page 3)
• M&A Tracker (page 4)
• Valuation Details (page 4)
• Hydrogen Production Costs (page 5)
• Demand Trends (Page 7)
• Electrolyzer Market Share & Technology Growth (page 8)

Data & Updates:
EU Hydrogen Strategy: On 7/8 the European Commission provided additional details on its broader energy transition including its hydrogen strategy…
APD, ACWA Power, & NEOM Form JV For $7B Green Hydrogen Facility In Saudi Arabia: On 7/7 APD announced, in conjunction with equal JV partners, ACWA Power and NEOM, the signing of a $5B agreement for a global-scale green hydrogen-based ammonia production facility…
Air Liquide & Port of Rotterdam Joint Initiative For Hydrogen Trucking: On 7/6 Air Liquide (AI-FR) and the Port of Rotterdam Authority announced a joint initiative to adopt and build the infrastructure for 1,000 hydrogen-powered zero-emission trucks by 2025…
CARB Passes Zero-Emission Truck Regulations: On 6/25 the California Air Resources Board (CARB) passed the Advanced Clean Trucks (ACT) Regulation which accelerates the large-scale transition of zero-emission medium and heavy duty vehicles in California. Beginning in 2024, 9% of all on-road Class 4-8 trucks sales…
NEL +NOK 150MM Purchase Order: On 6/30 NEL announced a +NOK 150MM purchase order for multiple H2Station units from…
BLDP $7.7MM Purchase Order From JV: On 7/2 BLDP announced it received a $7.7MM purchase order of membrane electrode assemblies (MEAs) for use in…
NKLA Starts Preorders: On 6/29 NKLA opened preorders for its Badger pickup truck, NZT off-highway vehicle (OHV), and WAV jet ski…
FCEL Terminates Exclusivity Agreements With POSCO, Seeks +$200MM In Compensation: On 6/28 FCEL officially notified POSCO Energy and…
…continued

For access information, please email us at [email protected]

Webber R|A Renewables Weekly

Webber Research: Renewable Energy

Highlights:

Orsted JV To Develop Clean Hydrogen In Copenhagen (page 1)
US Extends Safe Harbor Deadlines (page 1)
Next Generation EU (page 2)
Saudi’s Alfanar Rumored To Be Senvion India Buyer (page 2)
ENPH Collaboration With University of Washington (page 2)
RUN Introduces Brightbox In Nevada & Colorado (page 2)
ENS Board Changes & Dividend Declaration (page 2)
SGRE SG 14-222 DD Backlog Updates (page 2)
Vestas Expands 2020 Vietnam Intake To Over 300MW (page 3)
Aerodyn To Develop 111-Meter TC1B Rotor Blade (page 3)
US Net Electricity Generation (pages 3-4)
Solar PV Pricing (page 4)
LCOE Benchmarks & Timeseries (page 5)
Global Wind Turbine Market Share (page 6)
Solar PV Inverter Market Share (page 6)
US Wind & Solar Projects Announced Or In Early Development (page 7)

Orsted JV To Develop Large-Scale Clean Hydrogen In Copenhagen: On 5/26 Orsted announced it entered into a JV with Copenhagen Airports, Maersk (marine), DSV Panalpina (logistics), DFDS (ferry), and SAS (aviation) to develop a hydrogen and e-fuel production facility. The project will be developed in three phases with the ultimate goal of providing renewable fuel sources for multiple transportation methods in the Greater Copenhagen Area. Phase 1 includes a 10MW electrolyser to generate renewable hydrogen fuel for buses and trucks – potentially operational as early as 2023. Phase 2 considers a 250MW electrolyser which would have the capacity to produce renewable methanol for maritime transport and renewable jet fuel for aviation – potentially operational by 2027 when the first offshore wind power is available from Ronne Banke off the island of Bornholm. Phase 3 would upgrade the electrolyser capacity to 1.3GW with the potential to displace 30% of fossil fuels used at Copenhagen Airports by 2030. Orsted said the project could reach FID as early as 2021 after receiving required regulatory approvals as well as a full feasibility study.

US Extends Safe Harbor Deadlines: continued…

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Webber R|A Renewables Weekly

Renewable Energy Weekly

*REGI (Outperform) – Virtual NDR Weds 5/27 To participate email us directly or at [email protected]

Renewables – Weekly Highlights:

• GE To Add 193MW Onshore Wind In Turkey – Blades Built In-House (page 1)
• SPWR Sells O&M Business, Clears Maxeon Regulatory Hurdle (page 1)
• ENPH Expands Commercial Presence (page 1)
• IEA Updates Renewable Energy 2020 & 2021 Outlook (page 2)
• BNEF EV Outlook (page 2)
• AMRC Begins Commercial Operations In Ireland (page 2)
• SGRE Launches 14MW Direct Drive Offshore Turbine (page 2)
• Ginlong Solis To Double Manufacturing Capacity (page 3)
• Jinko & LONGi Launch New Modules (page 3)
• Sungrow To Provide Inverters For Ibri II Project In Oman (page 3)
• Suzlon Restructuring Update (page 3)
• PLUG Prices 2025 Convertible Notes (page 3)
• NJ Clean Energy Equity Act (page 3)
• US Net Electricity Generation (pages 4-5)
• Solar PV Pricing Dynamics (page 5)
• LCOE Benchmarks & Timeseries (page 6)
• Global Wind Turbine Market Share (page 7)
• Solar PV Inverter Market Share (page 7)
…continued

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W|EPC: AEP Capital Project Analysis – Q220

Digging Into AEP’s Capital Project Backlog

AEP Company Overview Page 2
Key Takeaways Page 3
ERCOT Overview Page 4
AEP’s Activity Level vs Guided Capex Pages 5-8
Cost Overrun Analysis: Who Stays On Budget?
- AEPT Page 9
- SWEPCO Page 10
- ETT Page 11
Ongoing Capital Projects – Current Status Pages 12 -15
ETT’s CREZ Project Problem – Warranty Status? Pages 16-17
Project Profile: Solstice To Bakersfield, 345-kV T-Line Pages 18-20
Additional Management Questions Page 21

American Electric Power (AEP, Market Cap ~$42B) has been in business for 114 years, with 5.5 MM customers across 11 states, including Texas. General Project EPC Background (AEP Subsidiaries):
American Electric Power Texas (AEPT) is a subsidiary of AEP, and provides transmission and distribution of electric power to ~1MM customers through Retail Electric Provider’s (REPs) in west, central, and south Texas, with an ROE sitting at at ~9.4%.

Southwestern Electric Power Company’s (SWEPCO), also an AEP sub, has 4K miles of transmission lines and 5K MW’s of generation capacity, supporting 536K customers primarily in Western Louisiana, North East Texas, the Panhandle of Texas, and Western Arkansas. SWEPCO’s ROE sit at ~9.6%.

Electric Transmission Texas, LLC, (ETT) is 50/50 JV between AEP and Berkshire Hathaway Energy Company, and owns/operates transmission facilities within Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), primarily around the AEPT service territory. ETT’s ROE sits at ~9.6%, and it’s capital budget is not broken out within AEP’s forecasted numbers. AEPT and SEPC 2020-2024 capital forecast (~$8.4B) comprises ~25% of AEP’s total expected spend (~$33B) over that period.

Key Takeaways:
• Why Utility Project Tracking Is Increasingly Important In This Environment…
• Estimated vs. Actual Project Costs – Who comes in well under budget…and who doesn’t? (Pages 9-11)
• AEPT & SWEPCO Capex Trending Materially Below Forecast (Pages 5-8)
• The Jury Is Still Out On $1.6B Of Project Costs (Pages 12-15)
• ETT – Ongoing Problems With CREZ Projects, But No Warranty Cost Recovery Claims? (Pages 16-17)
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Noisy Neighbors: A Commonwealth LNG Deep Dive & Venture Global’s Engineering Update

Energy EPC: Venture Global’s Engineering Update & A Detailed Look At Their Commonwealth LNG

Note 1: As expected (and highlighted in our Commonwealth LNG Report below – initially published nearly two weeks ago), Venture Global has filed motion to intervene in Commonwealth’s project development due to its planned activity and dredging in the Calcasieu Ship Channel. We’ll continue to monitor.

Note 2: Over the next few weeks we’ll be rolling out a new line of Energy EPC research, centered around the unique and insightful analysis of EPC Risks. Please let us know if you have any questions, and we’re excited to share more details soon!***

Commonwealth LNG (CWLNG) is a proposed 8.4 MTPA LNG export facility located on a 393-acre site in Cameron Parish, Louisiana. The Project is on the west side of the Calcasieu Ship Channel (“the Channel”) near the entrance of where the Channel spills into the US Gulf of Mexico. The Project is also located directly across the river from Venture Global LNG’s (“VGLNG”) 10.0 MTPA Calcasieu Pass LNG (CPLNG) export facility (Figure 1).

In the 20-pages that follow, we’ve analyzed the CWLNG project and how the Project’s boundaries and shipping operations may be an issue for CPLNG, the State of Louisiana, and the U.S. Coast Guard. (Webber note: again – VG filed a motion to intervene after this piece originally went to clients in late February)

CWLNG’s execution plan is based upon modularizing the LNG process and pre-treatment units as well as the LNG storage tanks. Typically, a full containment 160,000 m3 LNG storage tank takes 36 to 42 months to construct and commission. CWLNG has proposed modularizing six (6) 40,000 m3 single containment LNG tanks…(continued pages 2-22)

Venture Global LNG: Calcasieu Pass Engineering Update – Details, Background, & Key Questions

Key Points:

CPLNG’s engineering, procurement, and construction workflow/ sequencing is not following “traditional” EPC industry standards. (Pages 2-3)
It’s too early to tell if that differentiated sequencing has helped expedite the project or if procurement and construction activities will be impacted in later stages. (Page 3-4)
CPLNG’s recent engineering filings point to significant, relatively late-stage engineering changes (at least by historical standards) that warrant monitoring from a cost and timeline perspective. (analysis on Pages 4-6)

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