Webber R|A: Vertical LNG - Webber Research

Webber R|A: Vertical LNG

As part our launch materials for Webber Research & Advisory, we introduced our Vertical LNG presentation series, which includes a full overview of the entire LNG value chain, from Liquefaction to Regas, including our Global Project Rankings, individual company theses on Cheniere (LNG/CQP), Tellurian (TELL), NextDecade (NEXT), LNG Limited (LNGL), Golar (GLNG/GMLP), Gaslog (GLOG, GLOP), Teekay LNG (TGP), and several private projects, including Venture Global. Our thesis is premised on emerging Supply Push dynamics, and the impact they will likely play on global project FIDs and the forward LNG supply/demand balance, with a clear focus on 1) Proximity to the Permian Basin 2) EPC quality (emerging construction risks), and 3) tangible commercial progress. Over the next 3-4 years, we expect a significant shift in focus downstream, as the global market works to clear incremental LNG into both traditional demand sinks (China/Europe) as well as the emerging markets. To that point, our dynamic LNG supply/demand model probability weights +100 emerging market FSRU and gas-to-power projects, to arrive at a more thoughtful EM demand forecast, which we think is helpful in vetting potential off-take partners and the underlying viability of large-scale export projects.