W|EPC: Qatar LNG North Field Expansion – Baseline Report Q221

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ESG – Moving Into A More Transparent Future

https://www.seatrade-maritime.com/opinions-analysis/esg-moving-more-transparent-future

W|EPC: Golden Pass LNG (XOM, QP) – Project Update & On-Site Satellite Image Analysis – Q320

Golden Pass LNG: Our Delay & Contingency Fund Estimates Continue to Ramp

Key Takeaways:
• Chiyoda’s Engineering Delays Continue. We believe engineering delays have eroded a significant portion of the EPC risk, contingency, and profit, with the likelihood of ramping balance sheet exposure. (Pages 4 & 11)
• Our updated project timeline (delay) and contingency fund estimates are now material, sitting at….(continued)
• Our estimates point to Golden Pass project progress sitting closer to ~10% vs Chyioda’s report figure of 16% (Q2) based on both our satellite image review and….(continued)
• Sabine Pass Comparison. 18-Months after FID Sabine Pass LNG Trains 1 & 2 were 57.1% complete, vs our estimated range for Golden Pass LNG (~10-16%). (Page 8)

Table Of Contents

• Golden Pass Q320 Update – Key Takeaways (page 2)
• Revised Cost & Schedule Forecasts (page 3)
  • Cost Forecast (page 4)
  • Project Milestones (page 5)
  • Progress Analysis (page 6)
  • Analysis – Chiyoda’s 16% Reported Progress (page 7)
  • Putting It All Together – W|EPC Updated Contingency fund and project delay estimates
  • 18-Months After FID, Sabine Pass vs. Golden Pass LNG (page 8)
• Joint Venture Analysis (page 9)
  • Change Order Analysis vs. JV Structure (page 10)
  • Possible Impacts to Chiyoda (page 11)
• Satellite Image Analysis (page 12)
• Disclosures (page 17)

Golden Pass LNG Satellite Image Overview (page 13)

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W|EPC: Golden Pass LNG – Delay & Contingency Fund Estimates Continue To Ramp – Updated Project & Satellite Image Review

W|EPC: LNG Canada Q320 Monitor – Labor Dynamics & Baseline Satellite Image Review

LNG Canada Q320 Monitor – Labor Dynamics & Baseline Satellite Image Review

Shell • Petrochina • Mitsubishi • Kogas • Petronas

1) Union Craft Avg. Wage Rate Escalators & Impact On JGC/Fluor, and broader project cost…

What’s Happened/Changed: Part of our current focus is on LNG Canada’s wage rate escalation and union labor agreements post-2023.
Why Does That Matter: EPC lump sum proposals generally include labor escalation between 1-3% per annum (rates vary based on geography/availability). Labor agreements supporting LNG Canada and other B.C. projects expire in 2023 and have a relatively advantageous average labor escalation rate of…..continued.
For context, union labor strikes, renegotiated agreements, and significant wage rate escalation supported Gorgon LNG coming in $20B+ over budget. 
What’s The Impact:…..continued (Page 3)

2) Taking A Look At JFJV’s Longer-Term Labor Inflation Risk (Page 5)

3) JFJV’s Construction Activity – What does it tell us about the project timeline? (Page 8)

4) Satellite Image Analysis Baseline –  Benchmarks for Remainder of the Project…. (Pages 9-17)

W|EPC: LNG Canada Q320 Monitor – Labor Dynamics & Baseline Satellite Image Review

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W|EPC: Gorgon LNG’s Propane Kettle Cracks – Early Read

Overview:
On July 23, 2020, Reuters reported Australia’s Department of Mines, Industry Regulation & Safety (DMIRS) said “it plans to inspect Chevron’s Gorgon LNG plant as soon as possible following calls by a trade union to shut the plant.”
1. During routine maintenance, Chevron Australia discovered issues with the propane kettles on Train #2.
2. “The Australian Manufacturing Workers’ Union (AMWU) has called for Chevron to shut down the Gorgon plant for immediate safety inspections by a gov. regulator and for a report to be made public.”
3. Specifically, cracks up to 1 meter long and 30 millimeters deep were discovered by the non-destructive testing team (per AMWU). On July 28, 2020, a Chevron company spokesman said, “Chevron expected to restart Train #2 of its Gorgon LNG plant in early September after completing repairs.” Chevron said during routine maintenance that began on May 23rd and was scheduled to be completed by July 11, 2020, weld quality issues were discovered on 8 propane heat exchangers. Gorgon LNG Trains 1 & 3 are producing. On 07/29/20, inspectors from DMIRS were due on site to inspect the cracks after AMWUraised issues about the conditions of the South Korean-made kettles.

Key Takeaways:
• Inspectors from Western Australia’s “safety watchdog” were scheduled to inspect propane kettle cracks on Chevron’s Gorgon LNG Train-2 on 7/29
• Labor unions continue pushing back, requesting a full shut down of all three LNG trains for inspection.
• Publicly available technical details are limited, even for the folks who built Gorgon LNG (who we spoke with); however, we believe the 3-month estimated down time for repairs is….continued
• Primary rationale for a Train-1 and Train-3 inspection shut down would be…continued

W|EPC Thoughts & Observations
The publicly available technical details are limited, even for our contacts involved in building Gorgon LNG. However, we are watching the following:…continued

Concluding Thoughts…

Key Questions…

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Webber Research Hydrogen Tracker

Introducing the Webber Research Hydrogen Tracker

Yesterday we launched our Hydrogen Tracker – a weekly research product dedicated to the build out of Hydrogen production, technologies, and associated markets. For information about access to our Hydrogen Research, Renewables, or our Utility, Energy, & LNG Infrastructure Project coverage, please email us at [email protected]

Highlights:
• Recent News (page 1)
• LH2 Carrier Progress (page 3)
• M&A Tracker (page 4)
• Valuation Details (page 4)
• Hydrogen Production Costs (page 5)
• Demand Trends (Page 7)
• Electrolyzer Market Share & Technology Growth (page 8)

• Data & Updates:
• EU Hydrogen Strategy: On 7/8 the European Commission provided additional details on its broader energy transition including its hydrogen strategy…
• APD, ACWA Power, & NEOM Form JV For $7B Green Hydrogen Facility In Saudi Arabia: On 7/7 APD announced, in conjunction with equal JV partners, ACWA Power and NEOM, the signing of a $5B agreement for a global-scale green hydrogen-based ammonia production facility…
• Air Liquide & Port of Rotterdam Joint Initiative For Hydrogen Trucking: On 7/6 Air Liquide (AI-FR) and the Port of Rotterdam Authority announced a joint initiative to adopt and build the infrastructure for 1,000 hydrogen-powered zero-emission trucks by 2025…
• CARB Passes Zero-Emission Truck Regulations: On 6/25 the California Air Resources Board (CARB) passed the Advanced Clean Trucks (ACT) Regulation which accelerates the large-scale transition of zero-emission medium and heavy duty vehicles in California. Beginning in 2024, 9% of all on-road Class 4-8 trucks sales…
• NEL +NOK 150MM Purchase Order: On 6/30 NEL announced a +NOK 150MM purchase order for multiple H2Station units from…
• BLDP $7.7MM Purchase Order From JV: On 7/2 BLDP announced it received a $7.7MM purchase order of membrane electrode assemblies (MEAs) for use in…
• NKLA Starts Preorders: On 6/29 NKLA opened preorders for its Badger pickup truck, NZT off-highway vehicle (OHV), and WAV jet ski…
• FCEL Terminates Exclusivity Agreements With POSCO, Seeks +$200MM In Compensation: On 6/28 FCEL officially notified POSCO Energy and…
  …continued

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