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W|EPC: Renewable Methanol & Hydrogen – Analyzing Methanex’s (MEOH) Geismar Facilities

Renewable Methanol & Hydrogen – Analyzing Methanex’s (MEOH) Geismar Facilities – September 2020

Methanex & Renewable Methanol – Key Takeaways (page 2)
Renewable Methanol (page 3)
- Methanol Feedstock & Applications (page 4)
- Hydrogen is Getting Cheaper (page 5)
- Renewable Methanol Facilities (page 6)
Geismar Methanol Facilities (page 7)
- Methanex Overview (page 8)
- History – Geismar Units 1 & 2 (page 9)
- Geismar Unit 3 Comps (page 10)
- GU3 Cost Overview (page 11)
- Schedule – Key Milestones & Impact (page 12)
- Monthly Progress Curves (page 13)
EPC Dynamics – So Long KBR, Next Up?(page 14)
Disclosures (page 15)

Lower-Cost Hydrogen Will Produce Cost Competitive Renewable Methanol: Pipe Dream or Reality? Global methanol demand sits near ~75 MTPA; with demand expected to ramp amid new EU and U.S. environmental mandates. Renewable Methanol (RM) is produced using Hydrogen (H2) from solar/wind and carbon dioxide (CO2) as compared to traditional methanol produced from fossil fuels (i.e. coal & natural gas). (Page 4)
Cost-competitive RM would open the door to green plastics and support various marine, fuel, & vehicle clean energy mandates but, costs are not competitive based on current technology. (Pages 4 – 5) Limited project economics hasn’t stopped ~10 commercial scale renewable methanol facilities in various stages of development around the world. As these projects develop, lower costs and improved technology would be a game changer for the methanol industry while providing H2 more downstream applications. (Page 6)

Tracking the 800 lbs. Methanol Gorilla…Methanex (MEOH). (Pages 8 – 9)

Geismar Unit 3 – Positioning vs. Competition. (Pages 10 – 13)

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Webber Research: Hydrogen Tracker Highlights:

Recent Highlights (page 1)
LH2 Carrier Progress (page 3)
M&A Tracker (page 4)
Valuation Summaries (page 5)
Hydrogen Production Costs From Fossil Fuels (page 6)
Hydrogen Production Costs From Renewables (page 7)
Hydrogen Projects & Electrolyzer Tech (page 8)
Fuel Cell Technology Comparisons (page 9)

Recent Highlights
NKLA Breaks Ground On Coolidge Facility: On 7/23 NKLA announced it began construction on its 1MM sqft……
NEE Eases Into Hydrogen: On 7/24 NEE proposed a $65MM pilot green hydrogen plant with a 20MW electrolyzer in Florida….
MSFT To Replace Diesel Backup Power With Hydrogen: On 7/27 MSFT announced it successfully powered a row of data center servers for 48 consecutive hours with a 150kw hydrogen fuel cell system….
Linde To Build Refueling Station For World’s First Hydrogen Passenger Train: LIN will build and operate the station and is expected to begin construction in… BKR & Snam Complete Testing On Hybrid Hydrogen Turbine: On 7/20 BKR and Snam announced the successful testing of the hybrid hydrogen-powered NovaLT12 turbine

Webber Research: Hydrogen Tracker

For access information, email us at [email protected]

Highlights:
• Recent News (page 1)
• LH2 Carrier Progress (page 3)
• M&A Tracker (page 4)
• Valuation Summaries (page 5)
• Hydrogen Production Costs (page 7)
• Industry Dynamics (page 9)

PLUG Launches GenSure HP Platform
Linde Signs MOU For Hydrogen Mobility At 2022 Winter Olympics
Hyperion Set To Unveil XP-1 In August
US DOE Announces $11.5MM In Funding For CCS
Air Liquide Opens Hydrogen Fueling Station In Japan
McPhy Selected For Unnamed Fueling Station Project
Keeping Tabs On The World’s First Liquefied Hydrogen (LH2) Carrier:
- Future Supply Chain Dynamics

Webber Research Hydrogen Tracker

Introducing the Webber Research Hydrogen Tracker

Yesterday we launched our Hydrogen Tracker – a weekly research product dedicated to the build out of Hydrogen production, technologies, and associated markets. For information about access to our Hydrogen Research, Renewables, or our Utility, Energy, & LNG Infrastructure Project coverage, please email us at [email protected]

Highlights:
• Recent News (page 1)
• LH2 Carrier Progress (page 3)
• M&A Tracker (page 4)
• Valuation Details (page 4)
• Hydrogen Production Costs (page 5)
• Demand Trends (Page 7)
• Electrolyzer Market Share & Technology Growth (page 8)

Data & Updates:
EU Hydrogen Strategy: On 7/8 the European Commission provided additional details on its broader energy transition including its hydrogen strategy…
APD, ACWA Power, & NEOM Form JV For $7B Green Hydrogen Facility In Saudi Arabia: On 7/7 APD announced, in conjunction with equal JV partners, ACWA Power and NEOM, the signing of a $5B agreement for a global-scale green hydrogen-based ammonia production facility…
Air Liquide & Port of Rotterdam Joint Initiative For Hydrogen Trucking: On 7/6 Air Liquide (AI-FR) and the Port of Rotterdam Authority announced a joint initiative to adopt and build the infrastructure for 1,000 hydrogen-powered zero-emission trucks by 2025…
CARB Passes Zero-Emission Truck Regulations: On 6/25 the California Air Resources Board (CARB) passed the Advanced Clean Trucks (ACT) Regulation which accelerates the large-scale transition of zero-emission medium and heavy duty vehicles in California. Beginning in 2024, 9% of all on-road Class 4-8 trucks sales…
NEL +NOK 150MM Purchase Order: On 6/30 NEL announced a +NOK 150MM purchase order for multiple H2Station units from…
BLDP $7.7MM Purchase Order From JV: On 7/2 BLDP announced it received a $7.7MM purchase order of membrane electrode assemblies (MEAs) for use in…
NKLA Starts Preorders: On 6/29 NKLA opened preorders for its Badger pickup truck, NZT off-highway vehicle (OHV), and WAV jet ski…
FCEL Terminates Exclusivity Agreements With POSCO, Seeks +$200MM In Compensation: On 6/28 FCEL officially notified POSCO Energy and…
…continued

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Webber R|A Renewables Weekly

Webber Research: Renewable Energy

Highlights:

Orsted JV To Develop Clean Hydrogen In Copenhagen (page 1)
US Extends Safe Harbor Deadlines (page 1)
Next Generation EU (page 2)
Saudi’s Alfanar Rumored To Be Senvion India Buyer (page 2)
ENPH Collaboration With University of Washington (page 2)
RUN Introduces Brightbox In Nevada & Colorado (page 2)
ENS Board Changes & Dividend Declaration (page 2)
SGRE SG 14-222 DD Backlog Updates (page 2)
Vestas Expands 2020 Vietnam Intake To Over 300MW (page 3)
Aerodyn To Develop 111-Meter TC1B Rotor Blade (page 3)
US Net Electricity Generation (pages 3-4)
Solar PV Pricing (page 4)
LCOE Benchmarks & Timeseries (page 5)
Global Wind Turbine Market Share (page 6)
Solar PV Inverter Market Share (page 6)
US Wind & Solar Projects Announced Or In Early Development (page 7)

Orsted JV To Develop Large-Scale Clean Hydrogen In Copenhagen: On 5/26 Orsted announced it entered into a JV with Copenhagen Airports, Maersk (marine), DSV Panalpina (logistics), DFDS (ferry), and SAS (aviation) to develop a hydrogen and e-fuel production facility. The project will be developed in three phases with the ultimate goal of providing renewable fuel sources for multiple transportation methods in the Greater Copenhagen Area. Phase 1 includes a 10MW electrolyser to generate renewable hydrogen fuel for buses and trucks – potentially operational as early as 2023. Phase 2 considers a 250MW electrolyser which would have the capacity to produce renewable methanol for maritime transport and renewable jet fuel for aviation – potentially operational by 2027 when the first offshore wind power is available from Ronne Banke off the island of Bornholm. Phase 3 would upgrade the electrolyser capacity to 1.3GW with the potential to displace 30% of fossil fuels used at Copenhagen Airports by 2030. Orsted said the project could reach FID as early as 2021 after receiving required regulatory approvals as well as a full feasibility study.

US Extends Safe Harbor Deadlines: continued…

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