Webber Research Hydrogen Tracker

Introducing the Webber Research Hydrogen Tracker

Yesterday we launched our Hydrogen Tracker – a weekly research product dedicated to the build out of Hydrogen production, technologies, and associated markets. For information about access to our Hydrogen Research, Renewables, or our Utility, Energy, & LNG Infrastructure Project coverage, please email us at [email protected]

Highlights:
• Recent News (page 1)
• LH2 Carrier Progress (page 3)
• M&A Tracker (page 4)
• Valuation Details (page 4)
• Hydrogen Production Costs (page 5)
• Demand Trends (Page 7)
• Electrolyzer Market Share & Technology Growth (page 8)

• Data & Updates:
• EU Hydrogen Strategy: On 7/8 the European Commission provided additional details on its broader energy transition including its hydrogen strategy…
• APD, ACWA Power, & NEOM Form JV For $7B Green Hydrogen Facility In Saudi Arabia: On 7/7 APD announced, in conjunction with equal JV partners, ACWA Power and NEOM, the signing of a $5B agreement for a global-scale green hydrogen-based ammonia production facility…
• Air Liquide & Port of Rotterdam Joint Initiative For Hydrogen Trucking: On 7/6 Air Liquide (AI-FR) and the Port of Rotterdam Authority announced a joint initiative to adopt and build the infrastructure for 1,000 hydrogen-powered zero-emission trucks by 2025…
• CARB Passes Zero-Emission Truck Regulations: On 6/25 the California Air Resources Board (CARB) passed the Advanced Clean Trucks (ACT) Regulation which accelerates the large-scale transition of zero-emission medium and heavy duty vehicles in California. Beginning in 2024, 9% of all on-road Class 4-8 trucks sales…
• NEL +NOK 150MM Purchase Order: On 6/30 NEL announced a +NOK 150MM purchase order for multiple H2Station units from…
• BLDP $7.7MM Purchase Order From JV: On 7/2 BLDP announced it received a $7.7MM purchase order of membrane electrode assemblies (MEAs) for use in…
• NKLA Starts Preorders: On 6/29 NKLA opened preorders for its Badger pickup truck, NZT off-highway vehicle (OHV), and WAV jet ski…
• FCEL Terminates Exclusivity Agreements With POSCO, Seeks +$200MM In Compensation: On 6/28 FCEL officially notified POSCO Energy and…
  …continued

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W|EPC: Dominion Energy (D) – Offshore Wind Project Monitor Q320

W|EPC: Dominion Energy (D) – Q320 Offshore Wind Project Monitor

• Dominion Energy (D) Q320 Capital Project Monitor: Key Takeaways (slide 2)
• Virginia Clean Energy Act – Why Should You Care? (slide 3)
• Energy Costs vs. Benefits (slide 4)
• Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind (CVOW) Project Overview (slide 5)
• Phase #1: A Closer Look At The Pilot Project (slide 7)
  • Regulatory Approval Timeline
  • EPC Contractor – Ørsted
  • Cost & Schedule Analysis
• Phase #2: The $8B Main Course (slide 13)
  • Overview & Status
  • How big Are 12MW Offshore Turbines?
  • Offshore Wind: Construction, Risk, & Insurances Overview (slide 16)
  • Conclusions: Thank A Rate Payer (slide 20)

Key Highlights:
• Offshore Wind… An Awesome Opportunity for Dominion, Right?
• Phase #1 Demonstrator Costs Ballooned By ~73%…
• Phase #2 (2.6GW) Is The Real Prize – But Definitely Worth Keeping An Eye On Costs…

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Webber Research: Renewables Weekly

Renewable Energy Highlights:

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• Wild Week For ENPH (page 1)
• PLUG Acquires United Hydrogen & Giner ELX (page 2)
• BLDP Follow-On Order From Wrightbus (page 2)
• JinkoSolar To Supply Bifacial Modules In Chile (page 2)
• RUN To Launch 2 Virtual Power Plants (page 2)
• FCEL Restarts Operations At Torrington, CT Facility (page 2)
• NOVA Closes Solar Backed Notes (page 2)
• NEL +$3MM Purchase Order (page 2)
• GE Nearly Doubling Headcount At LM Wind Facility (page 2)
• SGRE SG 14-222 DD Turbine Backlog Up To 4.3GW (page 2)
• MHI Vestas Supplier Begins Taiwanese Blade Facility Construction (page 3)
• Vestas Recent Order Summary (page 3)
• Denmark To Develop First Offshore Wind Energy Islands (page 3)
• Germany’s National Hydrogen Strategy (page 4)
• New Jersey Plans Offshore Wind Port (page 4)
• EPA Receives 52 New SREs For 2011-2018 (page 4)
• Australian Storage Capacity To More Than Double In 2020 (page 4)
• US Net Electricity Generation (pages 5-6)
• Solar PV Pricing (page 6)
• LCOE Benchmarks & Timeseries (page 7)
• Global Wind Turbine Market Share (Page 8)
• Solar PV Inverter Market Share (page 9)
• US Wind & Solar Projects Announced Or In Early Development (page 10)

Wild Week For ENPH: Last week ENPH traded down 26% on the back of a short report alleging various accounting violations and more serious fraudulent activity, before recovering most of the lost ground in the days that immediately followed (-4% on the week). From our perspective, the report highlights a number of red flags, however…..

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Webber Research ESG Scorecard: 2020

2020 ESG Scorecard – Updated Model, Same Idea. Before we delve into our updated rankings, framework, and company specific changes, we want to reiterate the idea that underpins this entire endeavor, which is that we believe there is no longer a place in the public shipping markets for companies that do not prioritize strong corporate governance and capital stewardship. We believe that risk premiums associated with poor governance and capital discipline should continue to widen, eventually pricing-out conflicted players and antiquated structures from public markets.

New Carbon Factor. Our 2020 ESG Scorecard includes a broadened methodology that incorporates the public disclosure of relevant of carbon data, which becomes the 9th factor within our proprietary multi-factor ESG model and increases the total number of subfactors to 20 (from 18). The carbon disclosure metrics we’ve chosen to initially include (AER & EEOI – see Page 15) are aimed at aligning our ESG framework with the Poseidon Principles, and intended to help facilitate the consistency and disclosure of carbon data to investors. We will also continue to display each company’s ESG Scorecard Quartile, as well as a Carbon Disclosure Indicator on the front page of our company-specific research notes – as we’ve done since we launched Webber Research in Q419.

Model Adjustments. We’ve given our new Carbon Factor a 20% weighting within our model, positioning it among the most dominant variables within our framework, while re-weighting other aspects of our model in order to accommodate the addition. Our revised factor weightings and methodology can be found on Pages 10-15. We also narrowed our 2020 ESG Scorecard universe to 52 companies from 56 (Page 5).

Carbon Disclosure: Who’s Participating? We’ve included a summary of our work around carbon disclosures on Pages 2-3. In total, 42% of the companies in our scorecard (22/52) met carbon disclosure requirements within our model. While we’re encouraged by the level of initial participation, there’s clearly room improvement. To that point, we’re aware of several companies still the process of aggregating, auditing, and (eventually) disclosing relevant carbon data to investors, which should continue to improve the participation level in subsequent scorecards.

Superior Governance Translates To Outperformance:

• Companies with the strongest ESG scores (EGLE, INSW, ASC, TRTN, GNK, EURN, OSG, MATX, GRIN, GLOG, INT, GLNG, and KEX) outperformed the group by 16% on a 5-year basis and 41% since inception.

• Companies with the weakest ESG scores (CMRE, KNOP, TGP, CPLP, NMM, NNA, DSX, DLNG, GSL, DAC, TNP, GASS, and SB) underperformed the group by (24%) on a 3-year basis and (25%) since inception.

W|EPC Risks: Venture Global – Keeping An Eye On Pile Design Changes

W|EPC Risks: Venture Global – Calcasieu Pass LNG – Keeping An Eye On Pile Design Changes

Key Takeaways:
• An engineering design change at Calcasieu Pass (CPLNG) required additional piling and out of sequence construction activities.
• Meaningful engineering changes during construction & fabrication can undermine the benefits of modularization, by creating cost overruns and delays.
• No Related Delays Are Visible Yet. However, we should get a better view of the actual impact as Calcasieu enters the mechanical phases of fabrication and construction – where the ramification of errors or changes becomes more evident.

Keeping An Eye Out For Material Quantity Growth. On May 22nd, 2020, CPLNG requested FERC approve eight (8) additional piles in the Pre-Treatment Common Pipe Rack 27X (PTC27X) area due to changes in the pipe stress data. Pipe stress calculations are developed to ensure the piping design and layout can support the expansions and contractions caused by processing hydrocarbons. Pipe stress data is one of the most important elementsin determining the piping layout, structural steel design, material quantities needed for the CPLNG modules, and pile layout.

The PTC27X pile construction design was previously submitted to FERC on December 30, 2019 and approved for construction on January 31, 2020. PTC27X piling submittal timeline:

• Original Submittal to FERC: 12/30/19
• FERC Approved: 1/31/20
• Revised Submittal to FERC: 5/22/20
• FERC Approved: 6/4/20

Was Module Engineering For PTC27X Finally Completed Last Month? On May 22, 2020 CPLNG requested FERC approve the PTC27X pipe rack foundations and steel construction. We believe the final PTC27X pipe rack module engineering is now complete, subject to FERC Approval. The PTC27X modules were designed per….continued

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EPC Risks: Energy Transfer (ET) Capital Project Monitor – Q220

W|EPC: Energy Transfer (ET) Capital Project Monitor – Q220

• Energy Transfer (ET) Q220 Capital Project Monitor: Key Takeaways (slide 2)
• Energy Transfer Capital Budget Overview (slide 3)
• Energy Transfer: NGL Fractionation History (slide 5)
• Tale of the Tape: ETvs. EPD (slide 6)
• Mariner East 2X (slide 8)
• Orbit Ethane Export Terminal(slide 9)
• Lone Star Express Pipeline (slide 11)
• Lake Charles LNG: Fighting Yesterday’s War? (slides 13-20)

Key Takeaways:
1. Does ET’s Frac 8 Have a Cost Advantage over EPD’s Frac 12?
2. Energy Transfer’s NGL BPD Frac Costs Keep Falling
3. Budget Cuts, COVID-19 Impact, & Schedule Delays
4. Lake Charles LNG – Fighting Yesterday’s War?

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