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W|EPC: LNG Canada – Updated Satellite Image Analysis & Construction Progress – Q420 Project Monitor
Shell ∙ Fluor ∙ Mitsubishi ∙ PetroChina ∙ PETRONAS ∙ KOGAS
Table Of Contents:
- LNG Canada Q4 Monitor: Key Takeaways…………………………..….…Page 2
- LNG Canada Cost & Schedule Updates
- Updated Estimates…………………………..……………….….……..Page 4
- Project Milestones………………………………………………………Page 5
- Progress Analysis…………………………………………….….….….Page 6
- Analyzing Fluor’s 27.5% Reported Progress…….…………….……Page 7
- Project Staffing……………………………………………..……….….Page 8
- Satellite/Aerial Image Analysis
- July 2020 Overview………………….…………………….….………Page 10
- Sep 2020 Site Analysis……………………………………….………Page 11
- Jul vs. Sep 2020 – LNG Storage Tank…………………………..….Page 12
- Module Yard Analysis………………………………………………….Page 13
Key Takeaways:
- Delays At LNG Canada Continue to Build (Pages 4 – 7, 10 – 13)
- Fluor reported ~27.5% Engineering, Procurement, Fabrication, & Construction (EPFC) progress in September, vs our current estimate of…
- We believe Fluor’s 27.5% guidance implies module fabrication progress of ~45%, which is ~9x…
- Fluor also referenced COVID-related project delays (without getting specific)
- Our Current Delay Estimate:…..
- Estimated Probability Of Maintaining Schedule:…..
- Mind The Gap: There are several potential explanations for such a degree of progress variance…
- Examining Fluor’s Goal of 2,500 On-Site Workers By Dec-20 (Pages 4, 8, 10 – 13)
- Aerial images suggest meaningful concrete, structural steel, and significant construction activities have yet to start (beyond piling)…
- Pre-COVID, Fluor’s reported onsite labor was higher than the project’s publicly reported staffing levels, leading to cost overruns (Pages, 4, 8)
- Limited construction work fronts could constrain Flour’s ability to…
- Kicking The Can Down The Road… LNG Canada Starting to Resemble Another Fluor/JGC Project… (Pages 4, 8)
- In 3Q13, CPChem awarded Fluor & JGC a ~$6B EPC contract for an Ethylene Cracker in Texas. ~39-months later, Fluor/JGC announced the project would be over budget. The project was finished in mid-2018 (a year behind its baseline plan).
- ~23-months after FID, we believe the LNG Canada (JFJV) schedule is slipping and costs are…
W|EPC: LNG Canada – Updated Satellite Image Analysis & Construction Progress – Q420 Project Monitor
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