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W|EPC: Analyzing Energy Project Contract Terms – Risks, Strategies & Comps

December 2020

W|EPC: Analyzing Energy Project Contract Terms – Risks, Strategies & CompsKey Takeaways:1) Analyzing EPC Risk Avoidance: Comps & Techniques For Investors, Owners, & Contractors    W|EPC analyzed ~$20B of publicly available EPC lump sum turn-key (LSTK) contracts, focusing on sensitive or contentious terms used to allocate risk, manage performance expectations, & establish a framework for third-party indemnification and liquidated damages, etc. (Pages 3, 5-7, & 9-17).  Specific points of emphasis:Investors: Leveraging a project’s future expansion plans to protect ROE and/ maximize options (ROFR) options. (Pages 5, 9-11)Owners: Finding & justifying onerous contract terms as market or on-the-run. Contractors: Avoiding those onerous contract terms.2) Analyzing Notable Risks:    Liability & Indemnity: Existing Facilities can be problematic for Contractors & expose stakeholders. (Pages 5, 9-11)• Performance Guarantees & Damages: Numerous performance guarantees were publicly disclosed (likely inadvertently) that illustrates risks & production, emissions, and/or power consumption liabilities. (Pages 6, 12-14)• Technical Risk Allocation: One project’s subsurface provisions are tighter and limit change orders provisions for differences in soils data. (Pages 7, 15-17)

$2,900
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W|EPC: Enterprise (EPD) PDH-2 Q420 Project Monitor & Satellite Image Review

November 2020

W|EPC: Enterprise (EPD) PDH-2 Q420 Project Monitor & Satellite Image Review Key Takeaways – Page 2 Cost & Schedule Updates Cost Forecast – Page 4 Project Milestones – Page 5 Progress Analysis – Page 6 Project Comps – Page 7 On-Site Staffing – Page 8 Analysis & Satellite Image Review Analysis – PDH 2 Recovery Potential – Page 10  Recovery Plan Risk – Page 11 Progress Comparison – Page 12 Staffing Comparison- Page 13 ~2 Years Of Project Development For EPD – 15 October 2020 Satellite Image – 16

$1,900
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W|EPC: Southern Company (SO) – Q420 Vogtle Project Monitor – Key Decisions That Could Haunt Cost Prudency

October 2020

W|EPC: Southern Company (SO) – Vogtle Nuclear Expansion – Q420 Project Monitor – Key Questions That Could Haunt Cost Prudency
Key Takeaways: Vogtle Q420 Monitor – Key Decisions That Could Haunt Cost Prudency

• Who Will Be Getting Stuck With +$2.1B In Cost Overruns? Once Vogtle Unit 4 reaches “fuel load”, Georgia Power/Southern Company (GP/SO) can request a cost prudency determination to push their portion of cost overruns (~$2.1B) into recoverable utility rates. (Page 4)
Regulators will determine cost prudency based on project data, testimony, and a simple question: What should a reasonable manager have done at the time of the decision? (Page 5)
• We expect that process to be heavily scrutinized considering the scale of the overruns, and, in our opinion, some questionable GP/SO decisions. (Pages 4-5)

• Decisions That Could Haunt GP/SO’s Prudency. We believe there’s a case to be made that multiple GP/SO management decisions ran contrary to industry standards, potentially contributing to ($) billions in cost overruns, including
o A failure to either include or implement multiple EPC contract……(Page 7)
o For the first 4-years of the project, GP/SO used only…..(Page 23)
o In 2017, it appears GP/SO did not validate critical underlying EPC…..(Pages 9- 10)

$1,900
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W|EPC: LNG Canada – Updated Satellite Image Analysis & Construction Progress – Q420 Project Monitor

October 2020

W|EPC: LNG Canada – Updated Satellite Image Analysis & Construction Progress – Q420 Project Monitor Delays At LNG Canada Continue to Build (Pages 4 – 7, 10 – 13):   Fluor reported ~27.5% Engineering, Procurement, Fabrication, & Construction (EPFC) progress in September, vs our current estimate of…We believe Fluor’s 27.5% guidance implies module fabrication progress of ~45%, which is ~9x…Fluor also referenced COVID-related project delays (without getting specific)Our Current Delay Estimate:…..Estimated Probability Of Maintaining Schedule:…..Mind The Gap: There are several potential explanations for such a degree of progress variance…

$1,900
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W|EPC: The Production Hydrogen (H2) Production Roadmap – The Upstream, Midstream, & Downstream Process – Hydrogen ∙ Ammonia ∙ Methanol

October 2020

Webber EPC – Hydrogen (H2) – The Production Roadmap Laying Out The Upstream, Midstream, & Downstream Process – Hydrogen ∙ Ammonia – Q420. Upstream Sources Of Hydrogen – Blue & Green (Pages 4 – 9) :    >95% of Hydrogen (H2) is produced using Steam Methane Reformer (SMR) technology that produces 7 units of CO2/unit of H2 (on average) . SMR w/ a carbon capture system (Blue H2) is the preferred option to environmentally manage excess CO2. (page 7). Green H2 provides minimal CO2 but current technology limits Green H2’s cost competitiveness. (Page 6)…..

$1,900
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W|EPC: LNG Canada Q320 Monitor – Labor Dynamics & Baseline Satellite Image Review

September 2020

LNG Canada: Detailed Labor Review, Project Estimates, & Baseline Satellite Image Analysis (Shell, Petronas Kogas, Petrochina, Mitsubishi)

$1,900