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Webber Research: Fireside Chat Series – CoolCo LNG CEO Richard Tyrell, Thurs 9/28 @ 11am EST
Webber Research: Fireside Chat Series – NextDecade (NEXT) CEO Matt Schatzman, Tues. 08/08 @11AM EST
FreightWaves: Corporate governance in shipping
https://www.freightwaves.com/news/shipping-corporate-governance-whos-been-naughty-or-nice
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W|EPC: Venture Global’s Plaquemines Parish LNG – Q323 Project Update
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Webber Research: 2023 ESG Scorecard
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New for 2023: Company Specific Model Displays
New for 2023: Sector Specific ESG Rankings
W|EPC: Kinder Morgan’s Elba Island – Analyzing ~$350MM In Project Claims vs. EPC LSTK Wraps (May 2023)***
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Webber Research Fireside Chat Series: Kirby Corp (KEX) CEO David Grzebinski – Weds, May 10th @10am EST
Conference Call Replay: Changes To DOE’s Non-FTA Process: Impact on Global LNG
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W|EPC: DOE Non-FTA Reg Changes & LNG Project Database Update Summary
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W|EPC: Golden Pass LNG – Project Timeline & Cost Estimates, Satellite Image Review – Q223
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W|EPC: LNG Canada Project Update Q123 – Data & Satellite Image Review
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W|EPC: Freeport LNG Train 4 – Project Update Q123
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Webber Research Recognized by Institutional Investor As Leading Boutique Research Firm – 2022 All America Research Team
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Webber Research: Fireside Chat Series – H2 Funding w/ Edward Rios – Commercialization Executive for the DOE Office of Energy Transitions
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Webber Research: Freeport LNG Project Update – Restart Analysis & Review Q123
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Pages: 1-8
Read More S&P Global: US Freeport LNG keeps January restart target amid market expectations of further delay
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Webber Research: Fireside Chat w/ Plug Power (PLUG) CSO Sanjay Shrestha – Weds 01/11 @ 12:30PM EST
Webber Research: Venture Global LNG – Plaquemines Parish Q422 Project Update
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Webber Research: Golden Pass LNG Project Update Q422
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Bloomberg: Race Is On to Be the Next Big US Supplier of LNG to Fuel-Starved Europe
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Webber Research: LNG Canada Q422 Project Update – Satellite Image Review, Revised Timeline, Cost Ests
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Webber Research: LNG Weekly – VG Expands SPA, CC-Stage 3 Construction, & Tracking The Global Arb
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Webber Research: PLUG – 2022 Symposium Preview – Guidance Revision & What To Expect Next Week
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Preview Pages 1-18
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Webber Research: Fireside Chat – Next Hydrogen (NXH-CA) CEO Raveel Afzaal – Tuesday 10/4 @ 11AM EST
W|EPC: Energia Costa Azul (ECA) Phase 1 – Q422 Project Update
Access Full Report: Energia Costa Azul (ECA) Phase 1 – Q422 Update
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Webber Research: LNG Weekly – Takeaways From Gastech 2022 in Milan
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Webber Research: LNG Weekly 09.02.2022
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Webber Research: Qatar LNG NFE Expansion – Q322 Project Update
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The Wall Street Transcript: Despite Near-Term Volatility, Renewables Hold Long-Term Promise
https://www.twst.com/interview/despite-near-term-volatility-renewables-hold-long-term-promise
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Webber Research: ESG Scorecard 2022
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Read More Webber Research: Updated LNG Project Rankings & Outlook – Q222
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Webber Research Fireside Chat Series – Kirby Corp (KEX) CEO David Grzebinski & CFO Raj Kumar – Weds, 5/4 @ 11AM EST
Webber Research: Golden Pass LNG (XOM, QP) Project Update & Cost Analysis – Q222
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Webber Research: Renewables Refresh – 04.20.22
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Webber Research: Venture Global Calcasieu Pass LNG & Implications For Plaquemines – Project Update (H122)
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Webber Research Promotes Gregory Wasikowski To Leadership Role And Expands Equity Platform
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Webber Research: Alternative Fuel Vehicle Rankings – Multi-Factor Model Update H122
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Ardmore Turns To the Man Who Can “See Around Corners”
https://www.e1marine.com/ardmore-turns-to-the-man-who-can-see-round-corners/
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Batteries, Storage, & Charging? Takeaways from our Fireside Chat w/ Enersys (ENS) CEO Dave Shaffer
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Institutional Investor: How Wolfe & Other Veterans of the I.I. All-America Research Team Built Their Research Empires
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S&P Global: LNG Project Tracker – Momentum builds ‘at least for a couple’ of export projects
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S&P Global: GLOBAL GAS – US LNG supply buildout uncertainty tests global market as Gastech reconvenes
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W|PEC: LNG Canada Q321 Project Update
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Read MoreW|EPC: LNG Canada – Q321 Timeline, Budget, & Progress Update
Webber Research: 2021 ESG Scorecard – Marine
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ESG: Genco Shipping Reigns As Governance King In New Webber Scorecard – Tradewinds
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Fireside Chat: NextDecade LNG (NEXT) CEO Matt Schatzman & CFO Brent Wahl – Thursday, 06/17 @12PM
S&P Global: Tellurian to finish commercialization of Driftwood LNG first phase in few weeks
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Client Call: Ranking Alternative Fuel Vehicles – Introducing Our Multi-Factor Model
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Webber Research: Ranking Alternative Fuel Vehicles – Introducing Our Multi-Factor Model
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W|EPC: Qatar LNG North Field Expansion – Baseline Report Q221
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Fireside Chat: Fusion Fuel (HTOO) CFO Fredercio Chaves & CoBD Joao Wahnon – Weds 04/21 @11AM EST
Webber Fireside Chat Series: Renewable Energy Group (REGI) CEO CJ Warner & CFO Todd Robinson – Weds 4/7 @12pm EST
W|EPC: Golden Pass LNG – Q121 Update (XOM, QP)
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Webber Research & Advisory Continues Platform Expansion with Additions in Carbon Capture and Hydrogen Midstream
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Fireside Chat: Plug Power (PLUG) CSO Sanjay Shrestha – Thursday Feb. 11th @ 11am
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W|EPC: Commonwealth LNG Project Update, Comps, & Due Diligence Questions Q121
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***Conference Call: Alternative Fuels – Emissions, Feedstock, & Gas Stations, Thurs 2/4 @ 2PM EST – Future Of Transport (Part 3)***
Hydrogen Roadmap – Fuel Comparisons: Emissions, Feedstock, & Gas Stations – Future Of Transportation (Part 3)
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Read More S&P Global | PLATTS: US LNG Exporters Keep Utilization Near Capacity As Asia Prices Test New Heights
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W|EPC: Mozambique LNG – Baseline Report & On-Site Satellite Image Analysis (Q121)
Mozambique LNG – Q121
Baseline Report & On-Site Satellite Image Analysis
Project Owners: Total, Mitsui, ENH, PTT, etc.
LNG Buyers: Tokyo Gas, JERA, Centrica, Shell, CNOOC, EDF, etc
For access information please contact us at [email protected]
Key Takeaways:
Mozambique LNG (MZLNG): After A Sluggish Start…The Next 6 Months Are Critical.
• Q320 & Q420 satellite images indications… (pgs. 15-18)
• 17-months after FID, meaningful piling, concrete, &/or structural steel erection [redacted]…
• Recent security issues (increasingly localized terrorism) could further hamper staffing levels and complicate the path forward (while also potentially creating the pretense for Force Majeure relief).
Schedule Analysis & Estimates: W|EPC Estimate MZLNG is…
• Our proprietary risk model implies a probability of the project meeting its original cost/schedule metrics is [redacted] (page 5)
• EPC Contract Exposure: ~$8B LSTK contract, via a consortium comprised of Saipem (74.95%, SAPMF), McDermott (24.98), MDR) & Chiyoda (0.07%,)
• Note: a successful project would boost Saipem’s reputation, while also certainly meaningful for a restructured MDR ($560MM Raise on Jan 5, 2021).
Mozambique vs. LNG Canada
• MZLNG & LNG Canada share similar characteristics, specifically: a remote area, greenfield, man-camp, etc. (page 4)
• Key differences: MZLNG’s has lower-cost construction wages, shorter project schedule, but 300% more peak labor (~11k craft workers).
• Should MZLNG require even more labor given the circumstances described in pages that follow, it would likely require an even more significant pull from local labor (on-site housing can support ~9.5k workers).
• MZLNG is located in one of the least developed areas of Mozambique, which creates unique risks around that heavy lean on local labor, even before considering the uptick in localized terrorism. (page 12)
Mozambique LNG: Baseline Report Q121
Mozambique LNG: Baseline Report Q121 (Page 15)
W|EPC: Mozambique LNG – Baseline Report & On-Site Satellite Image Analysis (Q121)
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Webber Research: Hydrogen Roadmap Part 2 – Future of Vehicle Transportation Alternative Fuels – Efficiency & Safety
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Conference Call: Future Of Vehicle Transportation – Alternative Fuels Efficiency & Safety w/ Baker Risk, 12/17 @2PM
Conference Call: Fireside Chat With Enersys (ENS) CFO Mike Schmidtlein – Thursday 12/17 @ 11AM
Client Conference Call: Ranking & Evaluating Alternative Fuels – The Future Of Vehicle Transportation H2 • BEV • Methanol • CNG Hybrid • Ethanol • Ammonia • Biofuels • Diesel
W|EPC: Future Of Transportation – Ranking & Evaluating Alternative Fuels – H2 ∙ BEV ∙ Methanol ∙ CNG Hybrid ∙ Ethanol ∙ Ammonia ∙ Diesel ∙ Biofuels
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Alternative Fuel Analysis…Will History Repeat Itself?
In 1992 & 2005, the Department of Energy (DOE) created & amended the Energy Policy Act (EPA) that addressed fuel research and tax benefits for vehicle manufacturing.
Battery Electric Vehicles (BEV), Hydrogen (H2), Hybrids, Biofuels, Ethanol and Methanol were analyzed in 2005, but vehicle manufacturers supported gasoline hybrid vehicles due to technology and production constraints.
Since then, fuel cell technology and global, federal, & state emission guidelines have accelerated innovation and the market is now actively deciding transportation alternatives.
Small Vehicle Applications
BEV have taken a leading role in the small vehicle category with minimal competition from Hydrogen.
Hydrogen’s price, lack of infrastructure, and safety concerns highlight the risk associated with new fuel applications; however, Methanol may have an opportunity to fill this role.
The Roland Gumpert Nathalie markets an impressive range and methanol costs are comparative to BEV, but the $450k price tag limits it’s applications until manufacturing scales up to reduce cost.
Mid-Sized Vehicles and Truck Applications
Fuel energy density becomes a larger role as the size of a vehicle increases.
Fuel storage capacity, energy density, and vehicle efficiency play a large role in the range and cost for a vehicle.
Semi-Truck Range Is A Gating Issue For Future Fuels
New Semi-Truck concepts are ranging from shorter applications (<300 miles) to the long-haul market (>600 mile/day).
Daimler eCascadia seems to make sense for shorter applications and Hyliion’s Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) hybrid semi will likely apply well to long haul trades, if the marketing is as good as advertised.
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W|EPC: Analyzing Energy Project Contract Terms – Risks, Strategies & Comps
Analyzing Energy Project Contract Terms – Part 1 – Risks, Strategies & Comps Across Stakeholder Groups – Q420
Analyzing EPC Risk Avoidance: Comps & Techniques For Investors, Owners, & Contractors
W|EPC analyzed ~$20B of publicly available EPC lump sum turn-key (LSTK) contracts, focusing on sensitive or contentious terms used to allocate risk, manage performance expectations, & establish a framework for third-party indemnification and liquidated damages, etc. (Pages 3, 5-7, & 9-17). Specific points of emphasis:
- Investors: Leveraging a project’s future expansion plans to protect ROE and/ maximize options (ROFR) options. (Pages 5, 9-11)
- Owners: Finding & justifying onerous contract terms as market or on-the-run.
- Contractors: Avoiding those onerous contract terms.
Analyzing Notable Risks
- Liability & Indemnity: Existing Facilities can be problematic for Contractors & expose stakeholders. (Pages 5, 9-11)
- Performance Guarantees & Damages: Numerous performance guarantees were publicly disclosed (likely inadvertently) that illustrates risks & production, emissions, and/or power consumption liabilities. (Pages 6, 12-14)
- Technical Risk Allocation: One project’s subsurface provisions are tighter and limit change orders provisions for differences in soils data. (Pages 7, 15-17)
Distributing Project Risk Amid A Ramp In Renewables
- The steep ramp in renewables demand & project development could create an opportunity/leverage for participating EPC providers to ultimately own less project risk.
- Certain renewable projects could struggle getting an EPC LSTK contract (typically advantageous for the project owner, at the expense of the EPC provider). Dominion Energy (D), for instance, was unsuccessful in finding an EPC provider to provide a LSTK contract for their Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind (CVOW) project.
- EPC providers may have some leverage here, at least for now. W|EPC believes integrating EPC contract strategies/terms earlier than traditional projects (i.e. hydrocarbons) will improve risk/reward.
W|EPC: Analyzing Energy Project Contract Terms – Risks, Strategies & Comps
Table Of Contents:
- Key Takeaways – Page 2
- EPC Contracts Analyzed – Page 3
- Overview – Notable Risks for Any Projects – Page 4
- Third-Party Indemnification – Page 5
- Performance Guarantees – Page 6
- Rely-Upon Information – Page 7
- Contract Analysis, Significance, Negotiation Strategies, & Comps – Page 8
- Third-Party Indemnification – Page 9
- Performance Guarantees – Page 12
- Technical Risk Allocation – Page 15
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Webber Research: Reviewing California’s Rollout Plans For A Hydrogen Fueling Network
Webber Research: Reviewing California’s Rollout Plans For A Hydrogen Fueling Network Evaluating Safety, Cost, & Implementation Data
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In mid-November the California Air Resources Board (CARB) published initial plans detailing the development and implementation of a light-duty hydrogen fueling station networks, including a focus on financial self-sufficiency.
Specifically, CARB’s initial draft highlights:
1. Estimates around required state-support and eventual self-sufficiency
2. A comparison of existing market solutions, ongoing government research, and the latest awards in the Energy Commission’s Grant Funding program.
3. The economic sensitivity around FCEV deployment and the pace of network development.
4. Opportunities for cost reductions
5. Potential price reductions at the pump
6. Regional economic differences
Within the context of CARB’s report, we evaluated the economics and risks for deployment of Hydrogen fueling station options based on the following:
• Public Safety
• Climate Change and Air Quality – Tank to Wheel (TTW) – Well to Wheel (WTW)
• Gas Station Infrastructure Costs
• Hydrogen Costs at Pump for Consumer
W|EPC Takeaway: As highlighted below, if the primary goal of CARB is to reduce tailpipe emissions, we believe electric vehicles and hydrogen vehicles are the most viable options today. However, if the goal is to reduce total emissions and to implement hydrogen fueling as quickly, safely, and cost-effectively as possible, it opens the door for a mix of other fuel considerations – including biofuels, e-fuels, and other energy mediums to expedite the Hydrogen Economy. We believe how California ultimately balances those priorities will determine what it’s future fueling network looks like.
Climate Change & Air Quality
Air quality and the need for sustainable future fuels to reduce GHG emissions is driving alternative fuel technology development. CARB’s Low Carbon Fuel Credits (LCFC) are based on Well to Wheel Carbon Intensity Scores (CI) that identify upstream pollution caused by fuels.
Gas Station Infrastructure Costs
Future fuels (i.e. H2, Ammonia, Methanol) will require new infrastructure in almost all cases to meet federal and state emission guidelines. The Implementation cost of these can vary from storage retrofitting, to +$1 million infrastructure upgrades. The costs could further increase based on the engineering design and blast radius study results.
Hydrogen gas station equipment could include:
• Compressors – 350 bar pressure
• Above Ground Storage
250 bar pressure
250 kg storage
• H2 Dispenser Larger corporate gas stations may have the financial means to implement the costly infrastructure upgrades especially if supported by fuel tax credits. However, smaller gas stations may face challenges investing in the capital costs & the ~$2K/month electricity bill to own & operate the equipment.
Cost comparisons vs the low-cost alternative for Methanol:
• Hydrogen – See Figure 6. Multiple scenarios based on CARB capital cost estimates
• Methanol to Hydrogen in Vehicle – ~$50,000 per gas station to upgrade storage
• Methanol to Hydrogen at Pump – ~$1 million per gas station (250kg H2 storage)
Hydrogen Costs at Pump for Consumer: ~$16/kg and by 2030 as Low as $8/kg?
At the pump, the H2 price begins to stack up due to CAPEX, maintenance, safety, and production costs. We have provided a few options that have been considered for comparisons sake below that could further drive down the cost of hydrogen.
• Centralized Electrolysis: ~$8/kg
• Centralized Reformer (No Carbon Capture): ~$2.50/kg
• Methanol Reforming at Pump: ~$5/kg
Includes 250kg hydrogen storage and compression
• Methanol Reforming in Vehicle: ~$3.50/kg
Gas Station infrastructure cost are relatively minimal
For a methanol reforming at pump scenario, storage-related infrastructure costs could be lighter as Methanol is a potential mid-stream solution for hydrogen, and is generally easier to store in large quantities – potentially pushing the hydrogen cost at the pump level below $10/kg in a shorter timeframe.
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