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Webber Research: Renewables Weekly

Renewable Energy Highlights:

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  • Wild Week For ENPH (page 1)
  • PLUG Acquires United Hydrogen & Giner ELX (page 2)
  • BLDP Follow-On Order From Wrightbus (page 2)
  • JinkoSolar To Supply Bifacial Modules In Chile (page 2)
  • RUN To Launch 2 Virtual Power Plants (page 2)
  • FCEL Restarts Operations At Torrington, CT Facility (page 2)
  • NOVA Closes Solar Backed Notes (page 2)
  • NEL +$3MM Purchase Order (page 2)
  • GE Nearly Doubling Headcount At LM Wind Facility (page 2)
  • SGRE SG 14-222 DD Turbine Backlog Up To 4.3GW (page 2)
  • MHI Vestas Supplier Begins Taiwanese Blade Facility Construction (page 3)
  • Vestas Recent Order Summary (page 3)
  • Denmark To Develop First Offshore Wind Energy Islands (page 3)
  • Germany’s National Hydrogen Strategy (page 4)
  • New Jersey Plans Offshore Wind Port (page 4)
  • EPA Receives 52 New SREs For 2011-2018 (page 4)
  • Australian Storage Capacity To More Than Double In 2020 (page 4)
  • US Net Electricity Generation (pages 5-6)
  • Solar PV Pricing (page 6)
  • LCOE Benchmarks & Timeseries (page 7)
  • Global Wind Turbine Market Share (Page 8)
  • Solar PV Inverter Market Share (page 9)
  • US Wind & Solar Projects Announced Or In Early Development (page 10)

Wild Week For ENPH: Last week ENPH traded down 26% on the back of a short report alleging various accounting violations and more serious fraudulent activity, before recovering most of the lost ground in the days that immediately followed (-4% on the week). From our perspective, the report highlights a number of red flags, however…..

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LNG Canada Update: Trouble Ahead For Shell’s LNG Flagship?

An Empty Module Yard & Mounting Schedule Delays

Key Takeaways (pages 1, 5)
Estimated LNG Canada Schedule Shifts (page 2-3)
Satellite Image Review: COOEC Fluor Module Yard Layout (May 17, 2020) (page 4)
Satellite Image Review: Module Layout Descriptions (page 5)
Satellite Image Review: CFHI Module Yard Pre-Assembly Areas (page 6)
Long-Term Thoughts & Key Questions (page 7)

Key Highlights:
• Still Moving At A Crawl. As of May, module fabrication was ~2% complete, well behind our ~11% estimate in W|EPC’s February 2020 (pre-COVID 19) schedule…
• Satellite Image Review: The COOEC-Fluor Heavy Industries (CFHI) module yard pre-assembly areas look…
• Playing Catch Up Won’t Be Cheap. The schedule slip should put even more pressure on the back-end of LNG Canada’s timeline…continued…

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EPC Risks: Energy Transfer (ET) Capital Project Monitor – Q220

W|EPC: Energy Transfer (ET) Capital Project Monitor – Q220

  • Energy Transfer (ET) Q220 Capital Project Monitor: Key Takeaways (slide 2)
  • Energy Transfer Capital Budget Overview (slide 3)
  • Energy Transfer: NGL Fractionation History (slide 5)
  • Tale of the Tape: ETvs. EPD (slide 6)
  • Mariner East 2X (slide 8)
  • Orbit Ethane Export Terminal(slide 9)
  • Lone Star Express Pipeline (slide 11)
  • Lake Charles LNG: Fighting Yesterday’s War? (slides 13-20)

Key Takeaways:
1. Does ET’s Frac 8 Have a Cost Advantage over EPD’s Frac 12?
2. Energy Transfer’s NGL BPD Frac Costs Keep Falling
3. Budget Cuts, COVID-19 Impact, & Schedule Delays
4. Lake Charles LNG – Fighting Yesterday’s War?

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Southern Company (SO): Vogtle Nuclear Project Q220 Quarterly Monitor

Southern Company (SO) Q2 Vogtle Nuclear Project Monitor – Key Highlights:

• Vogtle Expansion: 6-Years Late…And ~$13-$16 Billion Over Budget? (Slides 2-5)
• How Much Will SO Be On The Hook For? (Slides 3-6)
• Something’s Gotta Give: Key Commissioning Milestones Appear Crammed Together To Avoid ROE Reductions (Slides 6-8)
• Cost Projections Were Already Ramping…Before COVID-19 (Slides 9-12)
• Cost Prudency Reviews – A Make Or Break For Stakeholders?…. (Slides 13-19)

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  • Quarterly Deep Dive Into Southern Company’s (SO) $27B Vogtle Nuclear Expansion. Southern Company (SO), is the largest owner of the Vogtle Nuclear Facility, via the 46% held by its wholly-owned subsidiary Georgia Power.
    • Vogtle has two active units (Units 1-2), which have been in-service since 1987-89. A two unit expansion (Units 3-4) was approved in 2009
    • Units 3 & 4 were originally expected to be in-service in 2016-17 and cost a combined ~$14B, the expansion project is now 6-7 years behind schedule, with costs rising to ~$27B….and potentially higher (slides 3-6).
    • Hence, the premise of adding a W|EPC Quarterly Vogtle Project Monitor to our Utility & Energy research platform: Digging into those cost overruns – particularly the bulging EPC costs, to get a more accurate and detailed view of the potential headwind for project stakeholders and SO shareholders.

Regulatory Background: Vogtle is regulated by the Georgia Public Service Commission (GPSC). GPSC’s primary role is to protect rate payers & determine if project costs can be justifiably passed-through via utility rates. In the quarters that follow we’ll venture to aggregate, analyze, and interpret cost overruns through the lens of GPSC, to put together a thoughtful estimate of what cost overruns will eventually land with SO shareholders.

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Webber R|A Renewables Weekly

Webber Research: Renewable Energy

Highlights:

  • Orsted JV To Develop Clean Hydrogen In Copenhagen (page 1)
  • US Extends Safe Harbor Deadlines (page 1)
  • Next Generation EU (page 2)
  • Saudi’s Alfanar Rumored To Be Senvion India Buyer (page 2)
  • ENPH Collaboration With University of Washington (page 2)
  • RUN Introduces Brightbox In Nevada & Colorado (page 2)
  • ENS Board Changes & Dividend Declaration (page 2)
  • SGRE SG 14-222 DD Backlog Updates (page 2)
  • Vestas Expands 2020 Vietnam Intake To Over 300MW (page 3)
  • Aerodyn To Develop 111-Meter TC1B Rotor Blade (page 3)
  • US Net Electricity Generation (pages 3-4)
  • Solar PV Pricing (page 4)
  • LCOE Benchmarks & Timeseries (page 5)
  • Global Wind Turbine Market Share (page 6)
  • Solar PV Inverter Market Share (page 6)
  • US Wind & Solar Projects Announced Or In Early Development (page 7)

Orsted JV To Develop Large-Scale Clean Hydrogen In Copenhagen: On 5/26 Orsted announced it entered into a JV with Copenhagen Airports, Maersk (marine), DSV Panalpina (logistics), DFDS (ferry), and SAS (aviation) to develop a hydrogen and e-fuel production facility. The project will be developed in three phases with the ultimate goal of providing renewable fuel sources for multiple transportation methods in the Greater Copenhagen Area. Phase 1 includes a 10MW electrolyser to generate renewable hydrogen fuel for buses and trucks – potentially operational as early as 2023. Phase 2 considers a 250MW electrolyser which would have the capacity to produce renewable methanol for maritime transport and renewable jet fuel for aviation – potentially operational by 2027 when the first offshore wind power is available from Ronne Banke off the island of Bornholm. Phase 3 would upgrade the electrolyser capacity to 1.3GW with the potential to displace 30% of fossil fuels used at Copenhagen Airports by 2030. Orsted said the project could reach FID as early as 2021 after receiving required regulatory approvals as well as a full feasibility study.

US Extends Safe Harbor Deadlines: continued…

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Webber Research: Renewable Energy Weekly

  • ENPH Partners With 5B In Australia
  • GE Renewable Energy Q1 Earnings
  • Sunpower COVID Updates
  • Safe Harbor Deadline Extension Brought To Treasury
  • BNEF Semi-Annual LCOE Update (Page 2, Charts On Page 4)
  • New York Approves Offshore Wind Plans, But Delays Action Due To COVID
  • Orsted’s 120GW Skipjack Offshore Wind Farm Delayed 1 Year
  • Q Cells Tops US Market Share
  • Sunrun Hires New CFO
  • Houston’s First Climate Action Plan
  • California Confirms PV & Storage Installers Are Essential Workers
  • Chicago Supporting EV Adoption
  • Figures:
  • US Net Electricity Generation By Type
  • US Net Electricity Generation By Renewable Type
  • Monthly Net Wind & Solar Generation State
  • Weekly Solar System Pricing
  • Grid-Tie Solar System Weekly Retailer Price ($US/Watt)
  • Solar Panel / Solar Module 120W+ Weekly Retailer Price ($US/Watt)

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ENPH Partners With 5B In Australia: On 4/22 ENPH announced it would collaborate with Australian solar innovator, 5B in its role in the Resilient Energy Collective (REC) – aimed at providing solar power solutions to Australians disconnected by bushfires and floods. 5B selected ENPH’s IQ 7+ microinverters to pair with its portable Maverick solar array systems, which will also be outfitted with Enphase Envoy with (communication gateway) which connects the system to Enphase Enlighten for easy monitoring & maintenance. ENPH also announced a partnership with Sunlogics in Belgium on 4/29 as its exclusive microinverter supplier using IQ 7 and 7+ microinverters (also outfitted with Envoy). Separately, after the close on 4/27 ENPH was announced to replace Core Laboratories (CLB) in the S&P MidCap 400 index effective before the market open on 5/1. ENPH traded up 16% on 4/28 as a result.

GE Renewable Energy Q1 Earnings: On 4/29 GE reported a $302MM Q1 loss in its Renewable Energy segment, down from a $187MM loss in Q119. Orders declined 13% y/y to $3.1B, which GE attributed mostly to poor execution and only partly to COVIDrelated supply chain disruptions and delays. GE highlighted LM Wind’s sites closures in India and the US and capacity reductions at 3 other sites in its Onshore Wind business (previously disclosed). In its Offshore Wind business, GE remains on track for certification of its Haliade-X turbine and plans to start production after delivering its 80- unit 6MW commitments to EDF (expected completion 2021). In Grid & Hydro, GE is operating 15 factories at full utilization, 10 factories at less than 80% utilization, and 8 factories at less than 50% utilization. Its facilities located in China are operating at preCOVID levels, including Wuhan which was shut down for 6 weeks. Overall GE said COVID-19 has had a limited effect on its Renewables business but that it’s monitoring supply chain constraints and implementing cost-out and restructuring initiatives.

Sunpower COVID Updates: On 4/20 SPWR announced further actions to address the financial and operational impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic including reducing base salaries of executive management another 35-50% (after cutting 25-30% and withdrawing 2020 financial guidance a month earlier), idling factories in France, Malaysia, Mexico, the Philippines, and the US (with expectations to bring them back online in the coming few weeks), and temporarily transitioning a portion of its employees to 4-day work weeks in response to reduced demand and workload (affecting ~3,000 workers according to GTM), but it said it’s still on track to spin-off its manufacturing arm, Maxeon Solar Technologies by the end of Q2.

Safe Harbor Deadline Extension Brought To Treasury: Last week senators from the Energy and Natural Resources Committee wrote a letter to the Department of Treasury advocating a 1yr deadline extensions for the Investment Tax Credit (ITC) and Production Tax Credit (PTC) due to setbacks related to the COVID-19 outbreak. …continued

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