Webber R|A Renewables Weekly

Webber Research: Renewable Energy

Highlights:

• Orsted JV To Develop Clean Hydrogen In Copenhagen (page 1)
• US Extends Safe Harbor Deadlines (page 1)
• Next Generation EU (page 2)
• Saudi’s Alfanar Rumored To Be Senvion India Buyer (page 2)
• ENPH Collaboration With University of Washington (page 2)
• RUN Introduces Brightbox In Nevada & Colorado (page 2)
• ENS Board Changes & Dividend Declaration (page 2)
• SGRE SG 14-222 DD Backlog Updates (page 2)
• Vestas Expands 2020 Vietnam Intake To Over 300MW (page 3)
• Aerodyn To Develop 111-Meter TC1B Rotor Blade (page 3)
• US Net Electricity Generation (pages 3-4)
• Solar PV Pricing (page 4)
• LCOE Benchmarks & Timeseries (page 5)
• Global Wind Turbine Market Share (page 6)
• Solar PV Inverter Market Share (page 6)
• US Wind & Solar Projects Announced Or In Early Development (page 7)

Orsted JV To Develop Large-Scale Clean Hydrogen In Copenhagen: On 5/26 Orsted announced it entered into a JV with Copenhagen Airports, Maersk (marine), DSV Panalpina (logistics), DFDS (ferry), and SAS (aviation) to develop a hydrogen and e-fuel production facility. The project will be developed in three phases with the ultimate goal of providing renewable fuel sources for multiple transportation methods in the Greater Copenhagen Area. Phase 1 includes a 10MW electrolyser to generate renewable hydrogen fuel for buses and trucks – potentially operational as early as 2023. Phase 2 considers a 250MW electrolyser which would have the capacity to produce renewable methanol for maritime transport and renewable jet fuel for aviation – potentially operational by 2027 when the first offshore wind power is available from Ronne Banke off the island of Bornholm. Phase 3 would upgrade the electrolyser capacity to 1.3GW with the potential to displace 30% of fossil fuels used at Copenhagen Airports by 2030. Orsted said the project could reach FID as early as 2021 after receiving required regulatory approvals as well as a full feasibility study.

US Extends Safe Harbor Deadlines: continued…

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Tankers: Floating Storage Scenario Analysis & Utilization Impact

Our 3-Stage Approach To Tankers For the Remainder Of 2020

• Our 3-Stage Approach To The Remainder Of 2020                            Pages 1-2
• Floating Storage Scenario Analysis – Impact On Utilization             Pages 2-3
• Storage Arbitrage, Inventories, & Rate Reactions                               Pages 4-7
• Multi-Factor Crude Tanker Utilization Model                                       Pages 8-9
• Updated Tanker NAVs, Valuation Metrics, & Estimates                     Pages 9-10

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Depth Of Floating Storage Build Key For Tanker Equities In Q220. Amid the double black swan start to the year (OPEC supply shock/pricing war coupled with demand destruction from the COVID-19 response), tanker equities have (generally) acted as a hedge against the rest of the energy tape, as the prospect of significant structural and arb-driven floating storage has supported tanker earnings well above seasonal trends (page 4). While increasing OPEC & Russian crude production battle to replace US exports (the degree to which remains in question) – the market mechanism for finding that new global production balance should ultimately result in saturated land based storage and a ramp in floating storage (already ~100mb), and narrower tanker capacity, providing a significant tailwind for tanker cash flows. From an equity perspective, we think about Tanker stocks (FRO, EURN, DHT, ASC, etc.) in 3 stages….(Pages 1-2)

What Would Robust Floating Storage Mean For Tanker Rates & Utilization In Q2/Q3? We ran a multi-factor scenario analysis based on our updated crude tanker utilization model, flexed for different levels of incremental daily crude production moving into floating storage over the next 2-3 quarters. At the low end of the range…(Pages 2-8)

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