W|EPC: Golden Pass LNG (XOM, QP) – Project Update & On-Site Satellite Image Analysis – Q320

Golden Pass LNG: Our Delay & Contingency Fund Estimates Continue to Ramp

Key Takeaways:
• Chiyoda’s Engineering Delays Continue. We believe engineering delays have eroded a significant portion of the EPC risk, contingency, and profit, with the likelihood of ramping balance sheet exposure. (Pages 4 & 11)
• Our updated project timeline (delay) and contingency fund estimates are now material, sitting at….(continued)
• Our estimates point to Golden Pass project progress sitting closer to ~10% vs Chyioda’s report figure of 16% (Q2) based on both our satellite image review and….(continued)
• Sabine Pass Comparison. 18-Months after FID Sabine Pass LNG Trains 1 & 2 were 57.1% complete, vs our estimated range for Golden Pass LNG (~10-16%). (Page 8)

Table Of Contents

• Golden Pass Q320 Update – Key Takeaways (page 2)
• Revised Cost & Schedule Forecasts (page 3)
  • Cost Forecast (page 4)
  • Project Milestones (page 5)
  • Progress Analysis (page 6)
  • Analysis – Chiyoda’s 16% Reported Progress (page 7)
  • Putting It All Together – W|EPC Updated Contingency fund and project delay estimates
  • 18-Months After FID, Sabine Pass vs. Golden Pass LNG (page 8)
• Joint Venture Analysis (page 9)
  • Change Order Analysis vs. JV Structure (page 10)
  • Possible Impacts to Chiyoda (page 11)
• Satellite Image Analysis (page 12)
• Disclosures (page 17)

Golden Pass LNG Satellite Image Overview (page 13)

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W|EPC: Golden Pass LNG – Delay & Contingency Fund Estimates Continue To Ramp – Updated Project & Satellite Image Review

W|EPC: Objections To Venture Global’s Storage Tank Design

Venture Global –  PHMSA Objects to Calcasieu Pass LNG’s Storage Tank Design

• A day after Venture Global successfully raised the first LNG storage tank roof
  (4/27/20) at its Calcasieu Pass LNG facility, PHMSA issued a memo (4/25/20) to
  FERC objecting to the LNG storage tank design, citing non-compliance with the
  National Fire Protection Association (NFPA 59A).
• LNG storage tanks must be designed and constructed to meet several regulations
  and codes, including NFPA 59A.
• The timing of PHMSA’s objection is notable since the tank design should
  have been approved by PHMSA & FERC prior to the start of construction.

Continued….
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Exxon, Qatar & Golden Pass: Something’s Gotta Give

Analyzing Project Costs & Logistics In The COVID Era
(Part 1 of 2 – Satellite Image Analysis Later This Week)

• Golden Pass: 4 Key Takeaways……………………………………Page 2
• EPC: Monthly Progress Evolution……………………………….. Page 3
• April 2020 Project Update…………………………………………Page 4
  • IP & Construction Activity ……………………………………Page 5
  • Labor Logistics In The COVID Era ………………………….Page 6
  • Cost Analysis – Significant Overruns Already?……………Page 8
  • COVID-19 Impact …………………………………………….Page 9
• December 2019 Baseline
  • Partner Organization, Key Participants ……………………Page 10
  • EPC Roles: MDR, Zachry, Chiyoda …………………………Page 12
  • Variance Analysis …………………………………………….Page 14

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Key Takeaways:

1) What’s Eating Golden Pass? QP & XOM Get Squirrelly In Press. On April 6th, the NYT ran an exclusive quoting Saad al-Kaabi (former QP CEO & current Qatar Energy Minister) as saying Golden Pass (GPX) was proceeding and on schedule. However, that was quickly followed by QP’s 30% partner Exxon (XOM) cutting $11B of 2020 CAPEX, delaying FID for Rovuma LNG (Mozambique), reiterating Coral LNG’s development, while ignoring GPX altogether. Since then, the NYT took down the article, energy markets are upside down, & questions mount. Based on actual EPC progress, we believe the reaffirmed GPX schedule falls somewhere between…..continued (Pages 2-3)
2) Is Golden Pass In Trouble? Monthly Progress Analysis. We believe GPX’s engineering has remained well behind schedule. Data suggests GPX has been attempting (unsuccessfully) to ramp labor earlier than planned…continued (Pages 9 & 13-14)
3) Labor Logistics In The COVID Era…On 4/17/20, GPX requested additional on-site parking amid challenges with safely busing craft workers to the site amid a global pandemic, however busing craft workers wasn’t supposed to begin for another year (2021). This minor, intuitive disclosure actually offers a few significant read-throughs for the project, as well as its path moving forward…continued (Pages 6-8)
4) Cost Overruns Poised To Accelerate From Here? Over the next 6 months we believe the project is already looking at construction cost overruns (relative to its baseline schedule) of at least…continued (Page 7)

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