Webber R|A Renewables Weekly

Renewable Energy Weekly

*REGI (Outperform) – Virtual NDR Weds 5/27 To participate email us directly or at [email protected]

Renewables – Weekly Highlights:

• GE To Add 193MW Onshore Wind In Turkey – Blades Built In-House (page 1)
• SPWR Sells O&M Business, Clears Maxeon Regulatory Hurdle (page 1)
• ENPH Expands Commercial Presence (page 1)
• IEA Updates Renewable Energy 2020 & 2021 Outlook (page 2)
• BNEF EV Outlook (page 2)
• AMRC Begins Commercial Operations In Ireland (page 2)
• SGRE Launches 14MW Direct Drive Offshore Turbine (page 2)
• Ginlong Solis To Double Manufacturing Capacity (page 3)
• Jinko & LONGi Launch New Modules (page 3)
• Sungrow To Provide Inverters For Ibri II Project In Oman (page 3)
• Suzlon Restructuring Update (page 3)
• PLUG Prices 2025 Convertible Notes (page 3)
• NJ Clean Energy Equity Act (page 3)
• US Net Electricity Generation (pages 4-5)
• Solar PV Pricing Dynamics (page 5)
• LCOE Benchmarks & Timeseries (page 6)
• Global Wind Turbine Market Share (page 7)
• Solar PV Inverter Market Share (page 7)
…continued

For more information on access and pricing, please email [email protected] 

Tankers: Moving From OPEC Trade, To Global COVID Relapse Hedge

Tanker Q120 Preview & Storage Update

• Thesis (EURN, DHT, FRO, ASC, etc) …………………Pages 1-2
• Floating Storage Scenario Analysis………………….Pages 2-5
• Tanker Rates Reactions & Implications ……………..Page 5
• Multi-Factor Supply/Demand Model……………….. Pages 6-7
• Crude Inventory & Production Cuts………………….Pages 7-9
• Valuations……………………………………………….. Pages 10-11
• Earnings Estimates……………………………………..Page 12

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Contango, COVID, & Floating Storage To Dominate Q1 Earnings: As with our Barge Preview from last week, we expect the majority of this earnings season to revolve around the simultaneous COVID+OPEC supply & demand shocks to global energy markets, which have driven down global oil demand by ~15-30mbd, introduced negative crude pricing for certain landlocked geographies, and reinforced the notion of systemic, structural and economically driven floating storage. The result: our tanker rate charts look more like seismograph readings (page 5) and our tanker group is poised to throw off record cash flow in Q2 & Q3 (and potentially longer). We believe the long tanker trade is gradually transitioning from a shorter-term OPEC trade, into a longer-term COVID-19 global relapse hedge. We believe tanker dynamics from the remainder of 2020 and 2021 will be defined by the depth and duration of the floating storage dynamics – which we believe will be increasingly driven by the shape and pace of a global economic reopening vs any remaining OPEC/policy maneuvers. Now that crisis level production levels are now more defined, we believe tanker rates and equities will have a strong negative correlation to the success of any semi-synchronized economic reopening. Hence, Long Tankers = Long An Extended And Asymmetrical Global Reopening.